bayesRatings

Yankees at Padres

MLB · Saturday, Sep 5 · 6:15 PM CT · Petco Park · Final NYY 5 – SD 1
← MLB / Sep 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY041000000591
SD000100000131
Team box
NYY·SD
9
hits
3
0
home runs
1
7
walks
6
7
strikeouts
12
159
pitches thrown
160
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD1-2111
Cody BellingerNYY1-5002
Spencer JonesNYY2-4101
Ben RiceNYY3-3200
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-4001
Ryan McMahonNYY1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carlos Rodon (W)NYY5.02137
Robbie Ray (L)SD2.15541

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · NYY 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 51%, SD 49% · Updated Sep 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.0 – 3.8 SD
Expected total
7.8
YankeesThe matchupPadres
−106Our fair odds+106
4.0Expected runs3.8
+0.22Power rating+0.09
4.5Runs / game4.2
3.7Allowed / game4.2
7.7Hits / game7.8
1.37Home runs / game1.09
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
80−61Season record74−67
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · SD chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10651%+11446.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres+10649%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.3our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← NYY wins bySD wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more38%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more27%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SDRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·SD
Sep 4 at SD
last game
Sep 4 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
NYY·SD
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.5
runs / game
4.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.2
80−61
season record
74−67
37−31
home record
42−28
43−30
away record
32−39
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
7.8
1.37
home runs / game
1.09
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.57
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

NYY · SD · 161 days
New York YankeesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
Sep 4at SDSD 3 − 2
May 7, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
May 6, 2025at NYYNYY 12 − 3
May 5, 2025at NYYSD 4 − 3
May 26, 2024at SDSD 5 − 2
May 25, 2024at SDNYY 4 − 1
May 24, 2024at SDNYY 8 − 0
May 28, 2023at NYYNYY 10 − 7
May 27, 2023at NYYNYY 3 − 2
May 26, 2023at NYYSD 5 − 1

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 4at SD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAA6 − 3W
Sep 1at LAA7 − 3W
Aug 31at LAA1 − 10L
Aug 30vs BOS16 − 1W
Aug 29vs BOS9 − 2W
Aug 29vs BOS0 − 6L
Aug 28vs BOS1 − 0W
Aug 27vs HOU1 − 5L
Aug 26vs HOU9 − 3W

SD · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 4vs NYY3 − 2W
Sep 2at CIN3 − 7L
Sep 1at CIN3 − 4L
Aug 31at CIN5 − 0W
Aug 30at TB4 − 5L
Aug 29at TB6 − 7L
Aug 28at TB4 − 9L
Aug 26vs PIT3 − 0W
Aug 25vs PIT0 − 1L
Aug 24vs PIT2 − 3L