bayesRatings

Padres at Reds

MLB · Monday, Aug 31 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final SD 5 – CIN 0
← MLB / Aug 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0004001005150
CIN000000000051
Team box
SD·CIN
15
hits
5
0
home runs
0
0
walks
4
10
strikeouts
11
145
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD4-5100
Ty FranceSD3-5101
Xander BogaertsSD1-5102
Jackson MerrillSD2-4101
Dustin HarrisSD2-5001
Luis CampusanoSD2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael King (W)SD6.04036
Brady Singer (L)CIN4.110405

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
SD +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · SD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 53%, CIN 47% · Updated Aug 31

Expected margin
SD by 0.6
Expected score
SD 4.6 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupReds
−112Our fair odds+112
4.6Expected runs4.0
+0.09Power rating−0.11
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.2Allowed / game4.9
7.8Hits / game7.6
1.09Home runs / game1.34
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
72−65Season record65−72
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · CIN chance
Our model fair52.9%47.1%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−11253%−15460.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11247%+12943.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.6
SDSan Diego Padres−0.6our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.6 expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCIN wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more41%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more31%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.09 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·CIN
Aug 30 at TB
last game
Aug 30 at CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
SD·CIN
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.9
72−65
season record
65−72
41−28
home record
32−36
31−37
away record
33−36
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.6
1.09
home runs / game
1.34
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.42
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

SD · CIN · 156 days
San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Jun 10at SDSD 5 − 4
Jun 9at SDCIN 5 − 3
Jun 8at SDSD 6 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at SDCIN 2 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at SDCIN 4 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jun 28, 2025at CINSD 6 − 4
Jun 27, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 1
May 23, 2024at CINSD 6 − 4

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 30at TB4 − 5L
Aug 29at TB6 − 7L
Aug 28at TB4 − 9L
Aug 26vs PIT3 − 0W
Aug 25vs PIT0 − 1L
Aug 24vs PIT2 − 3L
Aug 23vs MIN8 − 1W
Aug 22vs MIN7 − 5W
Aug 21vs MIN6 − 2W
Aug 19at NYM2 − 4L

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 30at CHC7 − 5W
Aug 29at CHC5 − 17L
Aug 28at CHC10 − 8W
Aug 26at SF10 − 9W
Aug 25at SF1 − 3L
Aug 24at SF0 − 5L
Aug 23at ARI3 − 5L
Aug 22at ARI11 − 5W
Aug 21at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 20vs STL9 − 10L