bayesRatings

Reds at Cubs

MLB · Saturday, Aug 29 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final CIN 5 – CHC 17
← MLB / Aug 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN022010000571
CHC3301304317190
Team box
CIN·CHC
7
hits
19
2
home runs
6
4
walks
5
11
strikeouts
4
173
pitches thrown
167
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC4-6436
Carson KellyCHC2-4314
Alex BregmanCHC3-5113
Seiya SuzukiCHC3-5312
Sal StewartCIN2-4112
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-2112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Abbott (L)CIN3.08721
Kevin Gausman (W)CHC5.06527

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +12
CIN +12
123456789
largest lead: CHC 12 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 40%, CHC 60% · Updated Aug 29

Expected margin
CHC by 1.3
Expected score
CHC 5.7 – 4.3 CIN
Expected total
10.0
RedsThe matchupCubs
+149Our fair odds−149
4.3Expected runs5.7
−0.10Power rating+0.23
4.1Runs / game5.2
4.9Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.6
1.31Home runs / game1.33
3.6Walks drawn / game4.2
64−71Season record76−59
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CHC chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+14940%+18135.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−14960%−21868.5%———
SpreadCHC by 1.3
CINCincinnati Reds+1.3our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.3 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more47%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.94 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CHCKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CHC
Aug 28 at CHC
last game
Aug 28 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
CIN·CHC
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
4.1
runs / game
5.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.3
64−71
season record
76−59
32−36
home record
38−28
32−35
away record
38−31
W2
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
8.6
1.31
home runs / game
1.33
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.54
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

CIN · CHC · 154 days
Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Aug 28at CHCCIN 10 − 8
Jul 12at CINCHC 8 − 4
Jul 11at CINCHC 5 − 3
Jul 10at CINCIN 4 − 0
May 7at CHCCHC 8 − 3
May 6at CHCCHC 7 − 6
May 5at CHCCHC 3 − 2
May 4at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 28at CHC10 − 8W
Aug 26at SF10 − 9W
Aug 25at SF1 − 3L
Aug 24at SF0 − 5L
Aug 23at ARI3 − 5L
Aug 22at ARI11 − 5W
Aug 21at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 20vs STL9 − 10L
Aug 19vs STL5 − 4W
Aug 18vs STL0 − 3L

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 28vs CIN8 − 10L
Aug 26at ARI0 − 2L
Aug 25at ARI4 − 5L
Aug 24at ARI7 − 0W
Aug 23at SEA19 − 2W
Aug 22at SEA4 − 5L
Aug 21at SEA5 − 6L
Aug 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Aug 18vs CHW4 − 3W
Aug 17vs CHW7 − 5W