bayesRatings

Reds at Cubs

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final CIN 10 – CHC 8
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN00011520110130
CHC1020001408132
Team box
CIN·CHC
13
hits
13
4
home runs
2
4
walks
2
10
strikeouts
7
173
pitches thrown
179
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler StephensonCIN2-5113
Pedro RamirezCHC1-4113
Sal StewartCIN2-4212
Seiya SuzukiCHC3-5202
Elly De La CruzCIN3-5102
Michael BuschCHC1-4112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett Lowder (W)CIN5.06305
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00001
David PetersonCHC5.06236
Trent Thornton (L)CHC0.24510

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +6
CIN +6
123456789
largest lead: CHC 3 · CIN 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 40%, CHC 60% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
CHC by 1.4
Expected score
CHC 5.6 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
9.8
RedsThe matchupCubs
+151Our fair odds−151
4.2Expected runs5.6
−0.10Power rating+0.24
4.1Runs / game5.2
4.8Allowed / game4.3
7.5Hits / game8.5
1.29Home runs / game1.32
3.6Walks drawn / game4.2
63−71Season record76−58
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CHC chance
Our model fair39.9%60.1%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+15140%+16637.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−15160%−19966.6%———
SpreadCHC by 1.4
CINCincinnati Reds+1.4our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.4 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more48%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CHC
Aug 26 at SF
last game
Aug 26 at ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 134+ games
CIN·CHC
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
4.1
runs / game
5.2
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
63−71
season record
76−58
32−36
home record
38−27
31−35
away record
38−31
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.5
1.29
home runs / game
1.32
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.54
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

CIN · CHC · 153 days
Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Jul 12at CINCHC 8 − 4
Jul 11at CINCHC 5 − 3
Jul 10at CINCIN 4 − 0
May 7at CHCCHC 8 − 3
May 6at CHCCHC 7 − 6
May 5at CHCCHC 3 − 2
May 4at CHCCHC 5 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at CINCIN 1 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 26at SF10 − 9W
Aug 25at SF1 − 3L
Aug 24at SF0 − 5L
Aug 23at ARI3 − 5L
Aug 22at ARI11 − 5W
Aug 21at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 20vs STL9 − 10L
Aug 19vs STL5 − 4W
Aug 18vs STL0 − 3L
Aug 17vs STL6 − 5W

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Aug 26at ARI0 − 2L
Aug 25at ARI4 − 5L
Aug 24at ARI7 − 0W
Aug 23at SEA19 − 2W
Aug 22at SEA4 − 5L
Aug 21at SEA5 − 6L
Aug 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Aug 18vs CHW4 − 3W
Aug 17vs CHW7 − 5W
Aug 16vs STL4 − 11L