bayesRatings

Padres at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 2 · 11:40 AM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final SD 3 – CIN 7
← MLB / Sep 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD210000000371
CIN040001207100
Team box
SD·CIN
7
hits
10
1
home runs
3
4
walks
2
10
strikeouts
7
161
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ BledayCIN3-4212
Juan BritoCIN1-3113
Ty FranceSD2-3112
Hector RodriguezCIN1-5111
Dane MyersCIN3-4100
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey Mize (L)SD4.05414
Brandon Williamson (W)CIN5.17325

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
SD +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 4 · SD 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 53%, CIN 47% · Updated Sep 2

Expected margin
SD by 0.6
Expected score
SD 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.5
PadresThe matchupReds
−111Our fair odds+111
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.09Power rating−0.10
4.3Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game4.9
7.8Hits / game7.6
1.09Home runs / game1.32
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
73−66Season record66−73
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · CIN chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshi62.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:40 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−11153%−16862.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11147%+13442.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.6
SDSan Diego Padres−0.6our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.6 expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCIN wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more41%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more31%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 4 Kstarted
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·CIN
Sep 1 at CIN
last game
Sep 1 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 139+ games
SD·CIN
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.3
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.9
73−66
season record
66−73
41−28
home record
33−37
32−38
away record
33−36
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.6
1.09
home runs / game
1.32
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.42
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

SD · CIN · 158 days
San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Sep 1at CINCIN 4 − 3
Aug 31at CINSD 5 − 0
Jun 10at SDSD 5 − 4
Jun 9at SDCIN 5 − 3
Jun 8at SDSD 6 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at SDCIN 2 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at SDCIN 4 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jun 28, 2025at CINSD 6 − 4

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 1at CIN3 − 4L
Aug 31at CIN5 − 0W
Aug 30at TB4 − 5L
Aug 29at TB6 − 7L
Aug 28at TB4 − 9L
Aug 26vs PIT3 − 0W
Aug 25vs PIT0 − 1L
Aug 24vs PIT2 − 3L
Aug 23vs MIN8 − 1W
Aug 22vs MIN7 − 5W

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 1vs SD4 − 3W
Aug 31vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 30at CHC7 − 5W
Aug 29at CHC5 − 17L
Aug 28at CHC10 − 8W
Aug 26at SF10 − 9W
Aug 25at SF1 − 3L
Aug 24at SF0 − 5L
Aug 23at ARI3 − 5L
Aug 22at ARI11 − 5W