bayesRatings

Rockies at Yankees

MLB · Thursday, Sep 10 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final COL 3 – NYY 10
← MLB / Sep 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL010000110380
NYY2200006010112
Team box
COL·NYY
8
hits
11
1
home runs
2
5
walks
5
12
strikeouts
5
152
pitches thrown
180
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Anthony VolpeNYY3-4115
Spencer JonesNYY3-4102
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1-5112
Kyle KarrosCOL1-4111
Jake McCarthyCOL2-5001
Cody BellingerNYY2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Feltner (L)COL5.06412
Max FriedNYY3.11127
John Schreiber (W)NYY1.11001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +8
COL +8
123456789
largest lead: NYY 8 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 31%, NYY 69% · Updated Sep 10

Expected margin
NYY by 2.1
Expected score
NYY 5.7 – 3.6 COL
Expected total
9.3
RockiesThe matchupYankees
+220Our fair odds−220
3.6Expected runs5.7
−0.48Power rating+0.24
4.7Runs / game4.5
5.7Allowed / game3.7
8.6Hits / game7.7
1.11Home runs / game1.36
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
55−90Season record83−62
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair31.3%68.7%
Kalshi30.4%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+22031%+22930.4%———
NYYNew York Yankees−22069%−29074.4%———
SpreadNYY by 2.1
COLColorado Rockies+2.1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 2.1 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more54%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more43%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 8.62 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·NYY
Sep 9 at NYY
last game
Sep 9 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 145+ games
COL·NYY
−0.48
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
4.7
runs / game
4.5
5.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
55−90
season record
83−62
30−41
home record
39−31
25−49
away record
44−31
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.6
hits / game
7.7
1.11
home runs / game
1.36
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.65
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

COL · NYY · 166 days
Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 7−3
Sep 9at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Sep 8at NYYNYY 5 − 3
May 25, 2025at COLNYY 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at COLNYY 13 − 1
May 23, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 2
Aug 25, 2024at NYYNYY 10 − 3
Aug 24, 2024at NYYCOL 9 − 2
Aug 23, 2024at NYYNYY 3 − 0
Jul 16, 2023at COLCOL 8 − 7
Jul 15, 2023at COLNYY 6 − 3

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 9at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 8at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 6vs STL8 − 10L
Sep 5vs STL10 − 7W
Sep 4vs STL6 − 7L
Sep 2vs BAL6 − 5W
Sep 1vs BAL4 − 2W
Aug 31vs BAL1 − 2L
Aug 30at ATL2 − 3L
Aug 29at ATL1 − 2L

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 9vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 8vs COL5 − 3W
Sep 6at SD3 − 4L
Sep 5at SD5 − 1W
Sep 4at SD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAA6 − 3W
Sep 1at LAA7 − 3W
Aug 31at LAA1 − 10L
Aug 30vs BOS16 − 1W
Aug 29vs BOS9 − 2W