bayesRatings

White Sox at Guardians

MLB · Monday, Sep 14 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final CHW 7 – CLE 3
← MLB / Sep 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000006001792
CLE000001002371
Team box
CHW·CLE
9
hits
7
1
home runs
1
5
walks
2
14
strikeouts
7
142
pitches thrown
198
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW2-4212
David FryCLE1-2112
Andrew BenintendiCHW3-5101
Kyle TeelCHW1-4102
Chase MeidrothCHW1-4101
Randal GrichukCHW1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean NewcombCHW1.01000
Sean Burke (W)CHW5.04024
Gavin Williams (L)CLE5.04237

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +6
CHW +6
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · CHW 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 47%, CLE 53% · Updated Sep 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
7.9
White SoxThe matchupGuardians
+112Our fair odds−112
3.9Expected runs4.0
−0.03Power rating+0.00
4.7Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.1
7.9Hits / game7.9
1.30Home runs / game0.95
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
76−73Season record76−74
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · CLE chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11247%+14640.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11253%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more35%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWSean Newcomb RP · last 3 starts: 5.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 7 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 27 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·CLE
Sep 13 at STL
last game
Sep 13 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 149+ games
CHW·CLE
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.7
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
76−73
season record
76−74
43−31
home record
36−39
33−42
away record
40−35
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
7.9
1.30
home runs / game
0.95
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.51
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CHW · CLE · 170 days
Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Aug 9at CHWCHW 5 − 3
Aug 8at CHWCHW 6 − 3
Aug 7at CHWCLE 8 − 2
Jul 5at CLECHW 7 − 6
Jul 4at CLECHW 3 − 1
Jul 3at CLECLE 4 − 3
Jul 2at CLECLE 6 − 5
Jun 24at CHWCLE 4 − 3
Jun 23at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jun 22at CHWCHW 6 − 5

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 13at STL1 − 3L
Sep 12at STL6 − 5W
Sep 11at STL3 − 7L
Sep 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Sep 9vs PIT2 − 4L
Sep 8vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 6vs MIN10 − 1W
Sep 5vs MIN4 − 6L
Sep 4vs MIN4 − 1W
Sep 3at HOU2 − 6L

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 13at MIN9 − 2W
Sep 12at MIN3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIN5 − 2W
Sep 9at BAL5 − 9L
Sep 8at BAL9 − 5W
Sep 7at BAL4 − 6L
Sep 6vs DET3 − 2W
Sep 5vs DET0 − 6L
Sep 4vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 4vs DET7 − 6W