bayesRatings

Guardians at Twins

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 3:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final CLE 3 – MIN 4
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE010020000350
MIN00400000470
Team box
CLE·MIN
5
hits
7
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
13
135
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Emmanuel RodriguezMIN1-4111
Steven KwanCLE1-4001
Travis BazzanaCLE1-4001
Royce LewisMIN1-3001
Kody ClemensMIN1-4101
Brooks LeeMIN2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Daniel EspinoCLE2.01002
Franco Aleman (L)CLE0.25401
Connor Prielipp (W)MIN5.15301
A.J. Minter (S)MIN1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 3 · CLE 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, MIN 49% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.8 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.2
GuardiansThe matchupTwins
−105Our fair odds+105
4.8Expected runs4.4
−0.01Power rating−0.14
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game5.0
7.9Hits / game8.2
0.94Home runs / game1.17
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
75−73Season record69−78
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIN chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10551%−11252.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10549%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 12%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byMIN wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEDaniel Espino RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 9.37 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIN
Sep 11 at MIN
last game
Sep 11 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
CLE·MIN
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.0
75−73
season record
69−78
36−39
home record
38−35
39−34
away record
31−43
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.2
0.94
home runs / game
1.17
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.53
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CLE · MIN · 168 days
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Sep 11at MINCLE 5 − 2
Jul 23at CLEMIN 3 − 1
Jul 22at CLEMIN 10 − 6
Jul 21at CLECLE 5 − 2
Jul 20at CLECLE 13 − 4
Jul 9at MINCLE 5 − 2
Jul 8at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 7at MINMIN 3 − 1
May 10at CLEMIN 5 − 4
May 9at CLEMIN 2 − 1

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 11at MIN5 − 2W
Sep 9at BAL5 − 9L
Sep 8at BAL9 − 5W
Sep 7at BAL4 − 6L
Sep 6vs DET3 − 2W
Sep 5vs DET0 − 6L
Sep 4vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 4vs DET7 − 6W
Sep 3vs TOR3 − 6L
Sep 2vs TOR0 − 11L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 11vs CLE2 − 5L
Sep 9at DET2 − 7L
Sep 8at DET3 − 2W
Sep 7at DET4 − 5L
Sep 6at CHW1 − 10L
Sep 5at CHW6 − 4W
Sep 4at CHW1 − 4L
Sep 2vs DET6 − 11L
Sep 1vs DET15 − 2W
Aug 31vs DET11 − 1W