bayesRatings

Rockies at Tigers

MLB · Sunday, Sep 13 · 11:10 AM CT · Comerica Park · Final COL 1 – DET 8
← MLB / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL100000000150
DET23021000880
Team box
COL·DET
5
hits
8
1
home runs
2
1
walks
7
11
strikeouts
7
177
pitches thrown
121
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Riley GreeneDET2-4113
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-4111
Adael AmadorCOL1-4111
Kevin McGonigleDET1-3102
Vimael MachinCOL2-3000
John PeckDET1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gabriel Hughes (L)COL2.05522
Jackson Jobe (W)DET6.13118

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +7
COL +7
123456789
largest lead: DET 7 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 35%, DET 65% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
DET by 1.7
Expected score
DET 5.6 – 3.9 COL
Expected total
9.5
RockiesThe matchupTigers
+185Our fair odds−185
3.9Expected runs5.6
−0.51Power rating+0.02
4.7Runs / game4.4
5.8Allowed / game4.0
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.11Home runs / game1.13
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
55−93Season record69−79
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · DET chance
Our model fair35.1%64.9%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:10 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+18535%+15239.6%———
DETDetroit Tigers−18565%−18364.6%———
SpreadDET by 1.7
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 1.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 15 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more50%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 13 Kstarted
DETJackson Jobe SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·DET
Sep 12 at DET
last game
Sep 12 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 148+ games
COL·DET
−0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.7
runs / game
4.4
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
55−93
season record
69−79
30−41
home record
38−36
25−52
away record
31−43
L6
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.11
home runs / game
1.13
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.64
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

COL · DET · 169 days
Colorado RockiesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 9−1
Sep 12at DETDET 11 − 7
Sep 11at DETDET 6 − 2
May 8, 2025at COLDET 11 − 1
May 8, 2025at COLDET 10 − 2
May 7, 2025at COLDET 8 − 6
Sep 12, 2024at DETCOL 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2024at DETDET 7 − 4
Sep 10, 2024at DETDET 11 − 0
Jul 2, 2023at COLDET 14 − 9
Jul 1, 2023at COLDET 4 − 2

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Sep 12at DET7 − 11L
Sep 11at DET2 − 6L
Sep 10at NYY3 − 10L
Sep 9at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 8at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 6vs STL8 − 10L
Sep 5vs STL10 − 7W
Sep 4vs STL6 − 7L
Sep 2vs BAL6 − 5W
Sep 1vs BAL4 − 2W

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Sep 12vs COL11 − 7W
Sep 11vs COL6 − 2W
Sep 9vs MIN7 − 2W
Sep 8vs MIN2 − 3L
Sep 7vs MIN5 − 4W
Sep 6at CLE2 − 3L
Sep 5at CLE6 − 0W
Sep 4at CLE3 − 4L
Sep 4at CLE6 − 7L
Sep 2at MIN11 − 6W