bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final TOR 7 – TEX 2
← MLB / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR1010104007110
TEX000200000280
Team box
TOR·TEX
11
hits
8
0
home runs
1
6
walks
4
5
strikeouts
7
156
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX1-3112
Nathan LukesTOR2-3202
Evan CarterTEX3-4000
Charles McAdooTOR1-3102
Alejandro OsunaTEX2-4000
Andres GimenezTOR1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer MilesTOR3.02004
Spencer Arrighetti (W)TOR2.12222
Jacob deGrom (L)TEX4.15342

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · TOR 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, TEX 51% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 4.1 TOR
Expected total
8.3
Blue JaysThe matchupRangers
+103Our fair odds−103
4.1Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating−0.03
4.0Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.1
0.96Home runs / game1.13
2.8Walks drawn / game3.3
76−79Season record78−77
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · TEX chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10349%+14640.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10351%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more26%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORSpencer Miles RP · last 3 starts: 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 27 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·TEX
Sep 19 at TEX
last game
Sep 19 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 155+ games
TOR·TEX
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.4
76−79
season record
78−77
40−38
home record
44−33
36−41
away record
34−44
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.1
0.96
home runs / game
1.13
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.62
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

TOR · TEX · 176 days
Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 7−3
Sep 19at TEXTEX 6 − 2
Sep 18at TEXTEX 7 − 1
Jun 28at TORTEX 3 − 2
Jun 27at TORTEX 7 − 4
Jun 26at TORTEX 5 − 4
Jun 25at TORTEX 6 − 5
Aug 17, 2025at TORTEX 10 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at TORTOR 14 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 5
May 28, 2025at TEXTOR 2 − 0

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 19at TEX2 − 6L
Sep 18at TEX1 − 7L
Sep 16vs DET5 − 1W
Sep 15vs DET1 − 10L
Sep 14vs DET5 − 6L
Sep 13vs BAL8 − 1W
Sep 12vs BAL7 − 3W
Sep 11vs BAL4 − 7L
Sep 9at ATH0 − 2L
Sep 8at ATH4 − 2W

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 19vs TOR6 − 2W
Sep 18vs TOR7 − 1W
Sep 17vs BOS3 − 4L
Sep 16vs BOS7 − 3W
Sep 15vs BOS4 − 2W
Sep 13at ARI7 − 6W
Sep 12at ARI6 − 2W
Sep 11at ARI1 − 9L
Sep 10at SEA3 − 4L
Sep 9at SEA2 − 3L