bayesRatings

Cubs at Red Sox

MLB · Friday, Sep 25 · 4:30 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final CHC 0 – BOS 2
← MLB / Sep 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000000000070
BOS00000002240
Team box
CHC·BOS
7
hits
4
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
7
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-4002
Nico HoernerCHC2-4000
Michael BuschCHC2-4000
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-3000
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS1-1100
Nick SogardBOS1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David PetersonCHC5.03026
Javier Assad (L)CHC2.10113
Brayan BelloBOS4.04012
Jedixson Paez (W)BOS5.03005

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 2 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 50%, BOS 50% · Updated Sep 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.2 – 3.9 BOS
Expected total
8.1
CubsThe matchupRed Sox
−102Our fair odds+102
4.2Expected runs3.9
+0.25Power rating+0.15
5.3Runs / game4.3
4.4Allowed / game3.8
8.6Hits / game8.2
1.37Home runs / game1.02
4.2Walks drawn / game3.2
88−71Season record85−74
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · BOS chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 4:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10250%−12154.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+10250%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.3our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byBOS wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more27%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.65 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·BOS
Sep 25 at BOS
last game
Sep 25 vs CHC
same day
days of rest
same day
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 159+ games
CHC·BOS
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
5.3
runs / game
4.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
88−71
season record
85−74
46−35
home record
39−39
42−36
away record
46−35
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.2
1.37
home runs / game
1.02
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.38
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CHC · BOS · 181 days
Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 6−4
Jul 20, 2025at CHCBOS 6 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 0
Jul 18, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 1
Apr 28, 2024at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Apr 27, 2024at BOSBOS 17 − 0
Apr 26, 2024at BOSCHC 7 − 1
Jul 16, 2023at CHCBOS 11 − 5
Jul 15, 2023at CHCCHC 10 − 4
Jul 14, 2023at CHCBOS 8 − 3
Jul 3, 2022at CHCBOS 4 − 2

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 24vs MIA2 − 1W
Sep 23vs MIA2 − 3L
Sep 22vs MIA2 − 8L
Sep 20at CIN9 − 1W
Sep 19at CIN5 − 2W
Sep 18at CIN4 − 6L
Sep 16vs ATL8 − 4W
Sep 15vs ATL3 − 6L
Sep 14vs ATL7 − 3W
Sep 13vs PIT3 − 4L

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 24vs CLE0 − 1L
Sep 23vs CLE1 − 0W
Sep 22vs CLE2 − 3L
Sep 20at TB1 − 5L
Sep 19at TB1 − 2L
Sep 18at TB4 − 2W
Sep 17at TEX4 − 3W
Sep 16at TEX3 − 7L
Sep 15at TEX2 − 4L
Sep 13vs KC4 − 1W