bayesRatings

Guardians at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final CLE 0 – BOS 1
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000000000051
BOS000001001120
Team box
CLE·BOS
5
hits
12
0
home runs
0
3
walks
0
9
strikeouts
10
119
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jahmai JonesBOS2-4000
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-3001
Jarren DuranBOS2-3100
Nick SogardBOS2-4000
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4000
Steven KwanCLE2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (L)CLE6.010107
Sonny Gray (W)BOS6.04013
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 1 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 45%, BOS 55% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 3.5 CLE
Expected total
7.8
GuardiansThe matchupRed Sox
+124Our fair odds−124
3.5Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating+0.15
4.2Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game3.8
8.0Hits / game8.2
0.97Home runs / game1.03
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
82−75Season record84−73
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · BOS chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+12445%+11945.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12455%−14258.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
CLECleveland Guardians+0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 9.49 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.79 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·BOS
Sep 22 at BOS
last game
Sep 22 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
CLE·BOS
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
4.2
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
82−75
season record
84−73
41−40
home record
38−38
41−35
away record
46−35
W6
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.2
0.97
home runs / game
1.03
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.52
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CLE · BOS · 179 days
Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 6−4
Sep 22at BOSCLE 3 − 2
May 31at CLEBOS 9 − 4
May 30at CLEBOS 9 − 1
May 29at CLECLE 4 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at BOSCLE 8 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at BOSBOS 11 − 7
Sep 1, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Apr 27, 2025at CLEBOS 13 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at CLEBOS 7 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Sep 22at BOS3 − 2W
Sep 20vs ATH1 − 0W
Sep 19vs ATH12 − 6W
Sep 18vs ATH5 − 3W
Sep 16vs CHW6 − 3W
Sep 15vs CHW7 − 6W
Sep 14vs CHW3 − 7L
Sep 13at MIN9 − 2W
Sep 12at MIN3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIN5 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Sep 22vs CLE2 − 3L
Sep 20at TB1 − 5L
Sep 19at TB1 − 2L
Sep 18at TB4 − 2W
Sep 17at TEX4 − 3W
Sep 16at TEX3 − 7L
Sep 15at TEX2 − 4L
Sep 13vs KC4 − 1W
Sep 12vs KC5 − 1W
Sep 11vs KC2 − 3L