bayesRatings

Athletics at Guardians

MLB · Friday, Sep 18 · 6:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final ATH 3 – CLE 5
← MLB / Sep 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH300000000330
CLE000311005100
Team box
ATH·CLE
3
hits
10
1
home runs
2
4
walks
5
8
strikeouts
9
144
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zack GelofATH1-4113
Jose RamirezCLE2-5112
Brayan RocchioCLE2-3102
Travis BazzanaCLE1-3111
Jeff McNeilATH1-4000
Alika WilliamsATH1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason BarnettATH3.17344
Scott Blewett (L)ATH1.21103
Daniel EspinoCLE1.01331
Joey Cantillo (W)CLE6.02015
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · ATH 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 38%, CLE 62% · Updated Sep 18

Expected margin
CLE by 1.2
Expected score
CLE 4.9 – 3.7 ATH
Expected total
8.6
AthleticsThe matchupGuardians
+161Our fair odds−161
3.7Expected runs4.9
−0.39Power rating+0.01
4.3Runs / game4.1
5.7Allowed / game4.2
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.22Home runs / game0.96
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
61−92Season record78−75
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · CLE chance
Our model fair38.4%61.6%
Kalshi34.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+16138%+18934.5%———
CLECleveland Guardians−16162%−23970.5%———
SpreadCLE by 1.2
ATHAthletics+1.2our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 1.2 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 12%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more46%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more35%
Athletics wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHMason Barnett RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 13.09 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CLEDaniel Espino RP · last 1 start: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·CLE
Sep 17 at TB
last game
Sep 16 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 153+ games
ATH·CLE
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.3
runs / game
4.1
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.2
61−92
season record
78−75
29−46
home record
38−40
32−46
away record
40−35
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.22
home runs / game
0.96
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.48
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ATH · CLE · 174 days
AthleticsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
May 3at ATHATH 7 − 1
May 2at ATHCLE 14 − 6
May 1at ATHCLE 8 − 5
Jul 20, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at CLEATH 8 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at ATHCLE 3 − 0
Jun 21, 2025at ATHCLE 4 − 2
Jun 20, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 2

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Sep 17at TB1 − 10L
Sep 16at TB3 − 4L
Sep 15at TB1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SEA8 − 7W
Sep 12vs SEA1 − 19L
Sep 11vs SEA6 − 5W
Sep 9vs TOR2 − 0W
Sep 8vs TOR2 − 4L
Sep 7vs TOR6 − 5W
Sep 6at SEA0 − 2L

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 16vs CHW6 − 3W
Sep 15vs CHW7 − 6W
Sep 14vs CHW3 − 7L
Sep 13at MIN9 − 2W
Sep 12at MIN3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIN5 − 2W
Sep 9at BAL5 − 9L
Sep 8at BAL9 − 5W
Sep 7at BAL4 − 6L
Sep 6vs DET3 − 2W