bayesRatings

Athletics at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final ATH 1 – TB 2
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000001000140
TB010000001260
Team box
ATH·TB
4
hits
6
0
home runs
1
0
walks
1
12
strikeouts
10
108
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB1-4111
Chandler SimpsonTB3-3100
Jeff McNeilATH1-4000
Shea LangeliersATH1-4000
Alika WilliamsATH1-3000
Henry BolteATH1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack PerkinsATH6.24018
Elvis Alvarado (L)ATH0.01100
Griffin JaxTB5.02007
Bryan Baker (W)TB1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 1 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 35%, TB 65% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
TB by 1.6
Expected score
TB 5.4 – 3.8 ATH
Expected total
9.2
AthleticsThe matchupRays
+184Our fair odds−184
3.8Expected runs5.4
−0.37Power rating+0.16
4.4Runs / game4.6
5.7Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game8.8
1.22Home runs / game1.08
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
61−89Season record90−59
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TB chance
Our model fair35.2%64.8%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+18435%+18934.5%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−18465%−22869.5%———
SpreadTB by 1.6
ATHAthletics+1.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.6 expected
Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 16 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more49%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more39%
Athletics wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TB
Sep 13 vs SEA
last game
Sep 13 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 149+ games
ATH·TB
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.4
runs / game
4.6
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.1
61−89
season record
90−59
29−46
home record
50−25
32−43
away record
40−34
W1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
8.8
1.22
home runs / game
1.08
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
6.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.47
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

ATH · TB · 171 days
AthleticsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Aug 12at ATHTB 8 − 4
Aug 11at ATHTB 12 − 4
Aug 10at ATHTB 10 − 6
Aug 13, 2025at ATHTB 8 − 2
Aug 12, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at ATHTB 7 − 4
Jul 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Jul 1, 2025at TBATH 4 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at TBATH 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2024at ATHATH 3 − 1

ATH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 13vs SEA8 − 7W
Sep 12vs SEA1 − 19L
Sep 11vs SEA6 − 5W
Sep 9vs TOR2 − 0W
Sep 8vs TOR2 − 4L
Sep 7vs TOR6 − 5W
Sep 6at SEA0 − 2L
Sep 5at SEA6 − 2W
Sep 4at SEA7 − 6W
Sep 3at SEA7 − 4W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 13vs HOU14 − 4W
Sep 12vs HOU3 − 2W
Sep 11vs HOU3 − 1W
Sep 10at ATL1 − 3L
Sep 9at ATL7 − 2W
Sep 8at ATL7 − 1W
Sep 6at TEX6 − 8L
Sep 5at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 4at TEX7 − 6W
Sep 3at TEX0 − 6L