bayesRatings

Athletics at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 16 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final ATH 3 – TB 4
← MLB / Sep 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH002001000381
TB22000000490
Team box
ATH·TB
8
hits
9
2
home runs
0
0
walks
0
8
strikeouts
6
111
pitches thrown
121
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tommy WhiteATH3-4111
Henry BolteATH1-4111
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4001
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4101
Jeff McNeilATH2-3100
Shea LangeliersATH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Basso (L)ATH2.27400
Nick Martinez (W)TB5.05203
Cole Sulser (S)TB1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 4 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 35%, TB 65% · Updated Sep 16

Expected margin
TB by 1.6
Expected score
TB 5.3 – 3.8 ATH
Expected total
9.1
AthleticsThe matchupRays
+184Our fair odds−184
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.37Power rating+0.17
4.4Runs / game4.6
5.7Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game8.7
1.21Home runs / game1.08
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
61−90Season record91−59
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TB chance
Our model fair35.2%64.8%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+18435%+15239.6%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−18465%−18364.6%———
SpreadTB by 1.6
ATHAthletics+1.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.6 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more49%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more39%
Athletics wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHBrady Basso RP · last 3 starts: 7.1 IP, 6.14 ERA, 6 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TB
Sep 15 at TB
last game
Sep 15 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 150+ games
ATH·TB
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.4
runs / game
4.6
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.1
61−90
season record
91−59
29−46
home record
51−25
32−44
away record
40−34
L1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.3
hits / game
8.7
1.21
home runs / game
1.08
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
6.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.47
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

ATH · TB · 172 days
AthleticsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
Sep 15at TBTB 2 − 1
Aug 12at ATHTB 8 − 4
Aug 11at ATHTB 12 − 4
Aug 10at ATHTB 10 − 6
Aug 13, 2025at ATHTB 8 − 2
Aug 12, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at ATHTB 7 − 4
Jul 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Jul 1, 2025at TBATH 4 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at TBATH 6 − 4

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 15at TB1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SEA8 − 7W
Sep 12vs SEA1 − 19L
Sep 11vs SEA6 − 5W
Sep 9vs TOR2 − 0W
Sep 8vs TOR2 − 4L
Sep 7vs TOR6 − 5W
Sep 6at SEA0 − 2L
Sep 5at SEA6 − 2W
Sep 4at SEA7 − 6W

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Sep 15vs ATH2 − 1W
Sep 13vs HOU14 − 4W
Sep 12vs HOU3 − 2W
Sep 11vs HOU3 − 1W
Sep 10at ATL1 − 3L
Sep 9at ATL7 − 2W
Sep 8at ATL7 − 1W
Sep 6at TEX6 − 8L
Sep 5at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 4at TEX7 − 6W