bayesRatings

Athletics at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final ATH 0 – CLE 1
← MLB / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000000060
CLE00010000170
Team box
ATH·CLE
6
hits
7
0
home runs
0
1
walks
1
13
strikeouts
7
111
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Steven KwanCLE3-4000
Zack GelofATH2-4000
Jose RamirezCLE2-4100
Jo AdellCLE1-4001
Jonah HeimATH1-3000
Jeff McNeilATH1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Perkins (L)ATH6.05104
Gavin Williams (W)CLE7.03019
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.11003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 1 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 37%, CLE 63% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
CLE by 1.3
Expected score
CLE 5.0 – 3.7 ATH
Expected total
8.7
AthleticsThe matchupGuardians
+167Our fair odds−167
3.7Expected runs5.0
−0.42Power rating+0.02
4.3Runs / game4.2
5.8Allowed / game4.2
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.21Home runs / game0.98
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
61−94Season record80−75
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · CLE chance
Our model fair37.4%62.6%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+16737%+19833.5%———
CLECleveland Guardians−16763%−23970.5%———
SpreadCLE by 1.3
ATHAthletics+1.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 1.3 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 12%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more47%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more36%
Athletics wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 31 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·CLE
Sep 19 at CLE
last game
Sep 19 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 155+ games
ATH·CLE
−0.42
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.3
runs / game
4.2
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
61−94
season record
80−75
29−46
home record
40−40
32−48
away record
40−35
L5
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.21
home runs / game
0.98
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.48
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ATH · CLE · 176 days
AthleticsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 8−2
Sep 19at CLECLE 12 − 6
Sep 18at CLECLE 5 − 3
May 3at ATHATH 7 − 1
May 2at ATHCLE 14 − 6
May 1at ATHCLE 8 − 5
Jul 20, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at CLEATH 8 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at ATHCLE 3 − 0
Jun 21, 2025at ATHCLE 4 − 2

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Sep 19at CLE6 − 12L
Sep 18at CLE3 − 5L
Sep 17at TB1 − 10L
Sep 16at TB3 − 4L
Sep 15at TB1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SEA8 − 7W
Sep 12vs SEA1 − 19L
Sep 11vs SEA6 − 5W
Sep 9vs TOR2 − 0W
Sep 8vs TOR2 − 4L

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Sep 19vs ATH12 − 6W
Sep 18vs ATH5 − 3W
Sep 16vs CHW6 − 3W
Sep 15vs CHW7 − 6W
Sep 14vs CHW3 − 7L
Sep 13at MIN9 − 2W
Sep 12at MIN3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIN5 − 2W
Sep 9at BAL5 − 9L
Sep 8at BAL9 − 5W