bayesRatings

Red Sox at Rays

MLB · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final BOS 1 – TB 5
← MLB / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000000001160
TB40010000540
Team box
BOS·TB
6
hits
4
1
home runs
1
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
7
106
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor StoryBOS1-4111
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-2111
Chandler SimpsonTB1-3002
Jonny DeLucaTB1-4102
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4000
Roman AnthonyBOS2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick Sandoval (L)BOS7.04525
Griffin Jax (W)TB5.03025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
BOS +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 5 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, TB 52% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.0 – 4.0 BOS
Expected total
8.0
Red SoxThe matchupRays
+110Our fair odds−110
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.17Power rating+0.18
4.4Runs / game4.6
3.8Allowed / game4.0
8.3Hits / game8.7
1.03Home runs / game1.06
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
84−71Season record94−60
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · TB chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+11048%+12943.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11052%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more25%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPatrick Sandoval SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.82 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·TB
Sep 19 at TB
last game
Sep 19 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 154+ games
BOS·TB
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.4
runs / game
4.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
84−71
season record
94−60
38−37
home record
54−26
46−34
away record
40−34
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
8−2
8.3
hits / game
8.7
1.03
home runs / game
1.06
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.0
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.51
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

BOS · TB · 176 days
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Sep 19at TBTB 2 − 1
Sep 18at TBBOS 4 − 2
Jul 19at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jul 18at BOSBOS 7 − 6
Jul 17at BOSBOS 5 − 3
Jul 17at BOSBOS 10 − 0
Jun 10at TBTB 7 − 5
Jun 9at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 8at TBTB 3 − 1
May 10at BOSTB 4 − 1

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 19at TB1 − 2L
Sep 18at TB4 − 2W
Sep 17at TEX4 − 3W
Sep 16at TEX3 − 7L
Sep 15at TEX2 − 4L
Sep 13vs KC4 − 1W
Sep 12vs KC5 − 1W
Sep 11vs KC2 − 3L
Sep 9vs LAA4 − 6L
Sep 8vs LAA1 − 6L

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 19vs BOS2 − 1W
Sep 18vs BOS2 − 4L
Sep 17vs ATH10 − 1W
Sep 16vs ATH4 − 3W
Sep 15vs ATH2 − 1W
Sep 13vs HOU14 − 4W
Sep 12vs HOU3 − 2W
Sep 11vs HOU3 − 1W
Sep 10at ATL1 − 3L
Sep 9at ATL7 − 2W