bayesRatings

Guardians at Red Sox

MLB · Thursday, Sep 24 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final CLE 1 – BOS 0
← MLB / Sep 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE010000000140
BOS000000000031
Team box
CLE·BOS
4
hits
3
1
home runs
0
1
walks
4
8
strikeouts
12
148
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE1-4111
Jose RamirezCLE2-4000
Jarren DuranBOS1-3000
Nick SogardBOS1-4000
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-3000
David FryCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Daniel EspinoCLE1.00002
Joey Cantillo (W)CLE5.02024
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00003
Ranger Suarez (L)BOS5.03115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · CLE 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 44%, BOS 56% · Updated Sep 24

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 3.5 CLE
Expected total
7.7
GuardiansThe matchupRed Sox
+125Our fair odds−125
3.5Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating+0.16
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game3.8
7.9Hits / game8.3
0.96Home runs / game1.03
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
82−76Season record85−73
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · BOS chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+12544%+10548.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12556%−12655.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
CLECleveland Guardians+0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEDaniel Espino RP · last 2 starts: 3.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 0.92 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·BOS
Sep 23 at BOS
last game
Sep 23 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 158+ games
CLE·BOS
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
82−76
season record
85−73
41−40
home record
39−38
41−36
away record
46−35
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.3
0.96
home runs / game
1.03
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.52
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CLE · BOS · 180 days
Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 7−3
Sep 23at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Sep 22at BOSCLE 3 − 2
May 31at CLEBOS 9 − 4
May 30at CLEBOS 9 − 1
May 29at CLECLE 4 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at BOSCLE 8 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at BOSBOS 11 − 7
Sep 1, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Apr 27, 2025at CLEBOS 13 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at CLEBOS 7 − 3

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 23at BOS0 − 1L
Sep 22at BOS3 − 2W
Sep 20vs ATH1 − 0W
Sep 19vs ATH12 − 6W
Sep 18vs ATH5 − 3W
Sep 16vs CHW6 − 3W
Sep 15vs CHW7 − 6W
Sep 14vs CHW3 − 7L
Sep 13at MIN9 − 2W
Sep 12at MIN3 − 4L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 23vs CLE1 − 0W
Sep 22vs CLE2 − 3L
Sep 20at TB1 − 5L
Sep 19at TB1 − 2L
Sep 18at TB4 − 2W
Sep 17at TEX4 − 3W
Sep 16at TEX3 − 7L
Sep 15at TEX2 − 4L
Sep 13vs KC4 − 1W
Sep 12vs KC5 − 1W