bayesRatings

Braves at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final ATL 6 – CHC 3
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000002202691
CHC010200000350
Team box
ATL·CHC
9
hits
5
3
home runs
0
3
walks
4
9
strikeouts
4
140
pitches thrown
154
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4212
Drake BaldwinATL2-5212
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-5112
Matt OlsonATL2-4000
Matt ShawCHC2-2100
Pedro RamirezCHC1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin Perez (W)ATL6.05242
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00000
Kevin GausmanCHC5.25206
Jacob Webb (L)CHC0.22210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 3 · ATL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 45%, CHC 55% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 5.1 – 4.5 ATL
Expected total
9.6
BravesThe matchupCubs
+120Our fair odds−120
4.5Expected runs5.1
+0.16Power rating+0.26
4.6Runs / game5.3
3.9Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game8.6
1.25Home runs / game1.38
2.9Walks drawn / game4.2
88−63Season record84−67
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+12045%+11945.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12055%−14258.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.6our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CHCKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·CHC
Sep 14 at CHC
last game
Sep 14 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 151+ games
ATL·CHC
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.6
runs / game
5.3
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
88−63
season record
84−67
51−27
home record
44−32
37−36
away record
40−35
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.6
1.25
home runs / game
1.38
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.42
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

ATL · CHC · 171 days
Atlanta BravesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Sep 14at CHCCHC 7 − 3
May 14at ATLCHC 2 − 0
May 13at ATLATL 4 − 1
May 12at ATLATL 5 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at ATLCHC 3 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at ATLCHC 6 − 1
Sep 8, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Sep 3, 2025at CHCATL 5 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 14at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 13vs PHI4 − 9L
Sep 12vs PHI12 − 2W
Sep 11vs PHI6 − 5W
Sep 10vs TB3 − 1W
Sep 9vs TB2 − 7L
Sep 8vs TB1 − 7L
Sep 7at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 6at PHI5 − 4W
Sep 5at PHI2 − 4L

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 14vs ATL7 − 3W
Sep 13vs PIT3 − 4L
Sep 12vs PIT4 − 3W
Sep 11vs PIT12 − 2W
Sep 9at MIL6 − 8L
Sep 8at MIL3 − 4L
Sep 7at MIL3 − 4L
Sep 6at MIA3 − 10L
Sep 5at MIA6 − 5W
Sep 4at MIA6 − 1W