bayesRatings

Pirates at Cubs

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final PIT 3 – CHC 4
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000003000360
CHC10100002451
Team box
PIT·CHC
6
hits
5
1
home runs
2
5
walks
3
8
strikeouts
6
113
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT1-4113
Pedro RamirezCHC2-3211
Michael BuschCHC1-3111
Nico HoernerCHC1-3001
Alex BregmanCHC1-2100
Matt ShawCHC0-0001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul SkenesPIT7.04214
Gregory Soto (L)PIT1.01222
Clay HolmesCHC5.25246
Ryan Rolison (W)CHC1.21000
Ryan Zeferjahn (S)CHC0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 2 · PIT 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 42%, CHC 58% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
CHC by 1.0
Expected score
CHC 5.5 – 4.5 PIT
Expected total
9.9
PiratesThe matchupCubs
+138Our fair odds−138
4.5Expected runs5.5
+0.00Power rating+0.25
4.8Runs / game5.4
4.6Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.7
1.14Home runs / game1.38
3.5Walks drawn / game4.2
74−74Season record82−66
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CHC chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13842%+10947.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13858%−13156.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.0
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.0 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more45%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CHCClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CHC
Sep 11 at CHC
last game
Sep 11 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 148+ games
PIT·CHC
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
4.8
runs / game
5.4
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
74−74
season record
82−66
38−34
home record
42−31
36−40
away record
40−35
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.7
1.14
home runs / game
1.38
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.62
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

PIT · CHC · 168 days
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Sep 11at CHCCHC 12 − 2
Jul 26at PITPIT 8 − 7
Jul 25at PITCHC 11 − 0
Jul 24at PITCHC 3 − 2
May 28at PITCHC 7 − 2
May 27at PITCHC 10 − 4
May 26at PITPIT 12 − 1
May 25at PITPIT 2 − 1
Apr 12at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 11at CHCPIT 4 − 3

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 11at CHC2 − 12L
Sep 10at CHW2 − 0W
Sep 9at CHW4 − 2W
Sep 8at CHW9 − 3W
Sep 6vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 5vs LAA1 − 6L
Sep 4vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 3vs SF5 − 2W
Sep 2vs SF4 − 5L
Sep 1vs SF13 − 12W

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 11vs PIT12 − 2W
Sep 9at MIL6 − 8L
Sep 8at MIL3 − 4L
Sep 7at MIL3 − 4L
Sep 6at MIA3 − 10L
Sep 5at MIA6 − 5W
Sep 4at MIA6 − 1W
Sep 3vs MIL2 − 1W
Sep 2vs MIL5 − 9L
Sep 1vs MIL4 − 9L