bayesRatings

Brewers at Cubs

MLB · Thursday, Sep 3 · 6:15 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final MIL 1 – CHC 2
← MLB / Sep 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000100000150
CHC00200000230
Team box
MIL·CHC
5
hits
3
1
home runs
1
1
walks
1
10
strikeouts
7
114
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-4112
Andrew VaughnMIL1-4111
Carson KellyCHC1-3100
Alex BregmanCHC1-3000
Christian YelichMIL1-4000
Joey OrtizMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Henderson (L)MIL7.03207
Kevin Gausman (W)CHC7.05119
Ryan Rolison (S)CHC1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 2 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 52%, CHC 48% · Updated Sep 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 4.8 CHC
Expected total
9.8
BrewersThe matchupCubs
−107Our fair odds+107
5.1Expected runs4.8
+0.38Power rating+0.23
5.0Runs / game5.4
3.8Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.7
0.93Home runs / game1.41
4.1Walks drawn / game4.2
87−53Season record78−62
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10752%−12655.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs+10748%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.3our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCHC wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more39%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CHCKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHC
Sep 2 at CHC
last game
Sep 2 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
MIL·CHC
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
5.0
runs / game
5.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
87−53
season record
78−62
47−25
home record
40−31
40−28
away record
38−31
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.7
0.93
home runs / game
1.41
4.1
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.46
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

MIL · CHC · 159 days
Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 3−7
Sep 2at CHCMIL 9 − 5
Sep 1at CHCMIL 9 − 4
Aug 31at CHCCHC 17 − 3
Jun 28at MILCHC 4 − 3
Jun 27at MILCHC 8 − 2
Jun 26at MILMIL 6 − 2
May 20at CHCMIL 5 − 0
May 19at CHCMIL 5 − 2
May 18at CHCMIL 9 − 3
Oct 11, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1post

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 2at CHC9 − 5W
Sep 1at CHC9 − 4W
Aug 31at CHC3 − 17L
Aug 30vs TEX4 − 7L
Aug 29vs TEX5 − 3W
Aug 28vs TEX6 − 1W
Aug 27at NYM8 − 2W
Aug 26at NYM8 − 1W
Aug 25at NYM2 − 3L
Aug 23vs ATL2 − 4L

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 2vs MIL5 − 9L
Sep 1vs MIL4 − 9L
Aug 31vs MIL17 − 3W
Aug 30vs CIN5 − 7L
Aug 29vs CIN17 − 5W
Aug 28vs CIN8 − 10L
Aug 26at ARI0 − 2L
Aug 25at ARI4 − 5L
Aug 24at ARI7 − 0W
Aug 23at SEA19 − 2W