bayesRatings

Brewers at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final MIL 9 – CHC 4
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0000142209132
CHC000301000460
Team box
MIL·CHC
13
hits
6
2
home runs
0
5
walks
3
5
strikeouts
8
138
pitches thrown
182
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey OrtizMIL2-4112
Christian YelichMIL1-4212
Tyrone TaylorCHC1-2102
William ContrerasMIL2-5201
Brice TurangMIL2-4100
Andrew VaughnMIL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robert GasserMIL4.13224
Antonio Senzatela (W)MIL1.01110
Matthew BoydCHC5.17313
Daniel Palencia (L)CHC0.22200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 3 · MIL 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 50%, CHC 50% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 4.8 CHC
Expected total
9.7
BrewersThe matchupCubs
−101Our fair odds+101
4.9Expected runs4.8
+0.35Power rating+0.26
5.0Runs / game5.4
3.8Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.7
0.92Home runs / game1.42
4.1Walks drawn / game4.2
85−53Season record78−60
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10150%+10548.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs+10150%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCHC wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more38%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHC
Aug 31 at CHC
last game
Aug 31 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 138+ games
MIL·CHC
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
5.0
runs / game
5.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
85−53
season record
78−60
47−25
home record
40−29
38−28
away record
38−31
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.7
0.92
home runs / game
1.42
4.1
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.45
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

MIL · CHC · 157 days
Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Aug 31at CHCCHC 17 − 3
Jun 28at MILCHC 4 − 3
Jun 27at MILCHC 8 − 2
Jun 26at MILMIL 6 − 2
May 20at CHCMIL 5 − 0
May 19at CHCMIL 5 − 2
May 18at CHCMIL 9 − 3
Oct 11, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1post
Oct 9, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 0post
Oct 8, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3post

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Aug 31at CHC3 − 17L
Aug 30vs TEX4 − 7L
Aug 29vs TEX5 − 3W
Aug 28vs TEX6 − 1W
Aug 27at NYM8 − 2W
Aug 26at NYM8 − 1W
Aug 25at NYM2 − 3L
Aug 23vs ATL2 − 4L
Aug 22vs ATL4 − 1W
Aug 21vs ATL2 − 1W

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 31vs MIL17 − 3W
Aug 30vs CIN5 − 7L
Aug 29vs CIN17 − 5W
Aug 28vs CIN8 − 10L
Aug 26at ARI0 − 2L
Aug 25at ARI4 − 5L
Aug 24at ARI7 − 0W
Aug 23at SEA19 − 2W
Aug 22at SEA4 − 5L
Aug 21at SEA5 − 6L