bayesRatings

Pirates at Cubs

MLB · Friday, Sep 11 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final PIT 2 – CHC 12
← MLB / Sep 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT100001000271
CHC0324021012160
Team box
PIT·CHC
7
hits
16
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
4
strikeouts
2
145
pitches thrown
134
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alex BregmanCHC3-4212
Michael BuschCHC2-4203
Carson KellyCHC2-3102
Seiya SuzukiCHC3-5301
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-3111
Nico HoernerCHC2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Wilber Dotel (L)PIT2.04301
Shota Imanaga (W)CHC6.05224

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +10
PIT +10
123456789
largest lead: CHC 10 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 43%, CHC 57% · Updated Sep 11

Expected margin
CHC by 0.8
Expected score
CHC 5.4 – 4.5 PIT
Expected total
9.9
PiratesThe matchupCubs
+134Our fair odds−134
4.5Expected runs5.4
+0.02Power rating+0.23
4.8Runs / game5.3
4.6Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.6
1.14Home runs / game1.38
3.5Walks drawn / game4.2
74−73Season record81−66
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CHC chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13443%+15938.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13457%−19966.6%———
SpreadCHC by 0.8
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.8our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.8 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITWilber Dotel RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CHC
Sep 10 at CHW
last game
Sep 9 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
PIT·CHC
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
4.8
runs / game
5.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
74−73
season record
81−66
38−34
home record
41−31
36−39
away record
40−35
W4
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.6
1.14
home runs / game
1.38
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.62
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

PIT · CHC · 167 days
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Jul 26at PITPIT 8 − 7
Jul 25at PITCHC 11 − 0
Jul 24at PITCHC 3 − 2
May 28at PITCHC 7 − 2
May 27at PITCHC 10 − 4
May 26at PITPIT 12 − 1
May 25at PITPIT 2 − 1
Apr 12at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 11at CHCPIT 4 − 3
Apr 10at CHCPIT 2 − 0

PIT · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Sep 10at CHW2 − 0W
Sep 9at CHW4 − 2W
Sep 8at CHW9 − 3W
Sep 6vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 5vs LAA1 − 6L
Sep 4vs LAA1 − 0W
Sep 3vs SF5 − 2W
Sep 2vs SF4 − 5L
Sep 1vs SF13 − 12W
Aug 30at STL5 − 4W

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Sep 9at MIL6 − 8L
Sep 8at MIL3 − 4L
Sep 7at MIL3 − 4L
Sep 6at MIA3 − 10L
Sep 5at MIA6 − 5W
Sep 4at MIA6 − 1W
Sep 3vs MIL2 − 1W
Sep 2vs MIL5 − 9L
Sep 1vs MIL4 − 9L
Aug 31vs MIL17 − 3W