bayesRatings

Cubs at Marlins

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final CHC 6 – MIA 1
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC010003101690
MIA000000100140
Team box
CHC·MIA
9
hits
4
1
home runs
0
6
walks
2
7
strikeouts
7
140
pitches thrown
175
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nico HoernerCHC3-4001
Michael BuschCHC1-4211
Alex BregmanCHC2-4100
Ian HappCHC1-4101
Pedro RamirezCHC0-3002
Griffin ConineMIA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shota Imanaga (W)CHC6.03104
Aaron Civale (S)CHC3.01023
Janson Junk (L)MIA5.03114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +5
CHC +5
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · CHC 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 54%, MIA 46% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
CHC by 1.0
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
8.7
CubsThe matchupMarlins
−118Our fair odds+118
4.8Expected runs3.8
+0.24Power rating+0.00
5.3Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.3
8.7Hits / game8.2
1.40Home runs / game1.02
4.2Walks drawn / game3.4
79−62Season record71−70
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · MIA chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11854%−16862.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+11846%+14041.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.0
CHCChicago Cubs−1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.0 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byMIA wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more45%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more34%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·MIA
Sep 3 vs MIL
last game
Sep 3 at KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 141+ games
CHC·MIA
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
5.3
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
79−62
season record
71−70
41−31
home record
42−27
38−31
away record
29−43
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.2
1.40
home runs / game
1.02
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.37
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

CHC · MIA · 160 days
Chicago CubsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
May 21, 2025at MIACHC 2 − 1
May 20, 2025at MIACHC 14 − 1
May 19, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 14, 2025at CHCMIA 3 − 1
May 13, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 4
May 12, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 2
Aug 25, 2024at MIAMIA 7 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at MIACHC 14 − 2
Aug 23, 2024at MIACHC 6 − 3
Apr 21, 2024at CHCMIA 6 − 3

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 3vs MIL2 − 1W
Sep 2vs MIL5 − 9L
Sep 1vs MIL4 − 9L
Aug 31vs MIL17 − 3W
Aug 30vs CIN5 − 7L
Aug 29vs CIN17 − 5W
Aug 28vs CIN8 − 10L
Aug 26at ARI0 − 2L
Aug 25at ARI4 − 5L
Aug 24at ARI7 − 0W

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 3at KC3 − 7L
Sep 2at KC9 − 6W
Sep 1at KC6 − 3W
Aug 31at WSH3 − 6L
Aug 30at WSH6 − 2W
Aug 29at WSH4 − 5L
Aug 28at WSH2 − 9L
Aug 26vs BOS4 − 0W
Aug 25vs BOS3 − 7L
Aug 24vs BOS2 − 4L