bayesRatings

Phillies at Braves

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final PHI 2 – ATL 12
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI100000010272
ATL0008010312130
Team box
PHI·ATL
7
hits
13
2
home runs
2
0
walks
5
4
strikeouts
8
162
pitches thrown
121
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL4-5213
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL3-3212
Bryce HarperPHI1-3111
Justin CrawfordPHI1-3111
Mauricio DubonATL1-4102
Drake BaldwinATL1-5102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tim MayzaPHI3.02004
Brooks Raley (L)PHI0.22312
Tyler Mahle (W)ATL7.06103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +10
PHI +10
123456789
largest lead: ATL 10 · PHI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 48%, ATL 52% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.1 – 4.0 PHI
Expected total
8.2
PhilliesThe matchupBraves
+108Our fair odds−108
4.0Expected runs4.1
+0.16Power rating+0.16
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.3
1.17Home runs / game1.25
3.2Walks drawn / game2.9
82−66Season record87−61
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10848%+11945.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−10852%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more36%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHITim Mayza RP · last 3 starts: 4.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 4 Kstarted
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·ATL
Sep 11 at ATL
last game
Sep 11 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 148+ games
PHI·ATL
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
82−66
season record
87−61
41−34
home record
50−26
41−32
away record
37−35
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.3
1.17
home runs / game
1.25
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.51
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

PHI · ATL · 168 days
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Sep 11at ATLATL 6 − 5
Sep 7at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 6at PHIATL 5 − 4
Sep 5at PHIPHI 4 − 2
Sep 4at PHIATL 5 − 2
Apr 26at ATLATL 6 − 2
Apr 25at ATLPHI 8 − 5
Apr 24at ATLATL 5 − 3
Apr 19at PHIATL 4 − 2
Apr 18at PHIATL 3 − 1

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 11at ATL5 − 6L
Sep 10vs HOU1 − 2L
Sep 9vs HOU11 − 7W
Sep 8vs HOU5 − 6L
Sep 7vs ATL1 − 0W
Sep 6vs ATL4 − 5L
Sep 5vs ATL4 − 2W
Sep 4vs ATL2 − 5L
Sep 2at ARI0 − 1L
Sep 1at ARI7 − 1W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 11vs PHI6 − 5W
Sep 10vs TB3 − 1W
Sep 9vs TB2 − 7L
Sep 8vs TB1 − 7L
Sep 7at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 6at PHI5 − 4W
Sep 5at PHI2 − 4L
Sep 4at PHI5 − 2W
Sep 2at WSH9 − 0W
Sep 1at WSH5 − 9L