bayesRatings

Cubs at Reds

MLB · Friday, Sep 18 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final CHC 4 – CIN 6
← MLB / Sep 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC011200000491
CIN20100300680
Team box
CHC·CIN
9
hits
8
1
home runs
0
4
walks
5
9
strikeouts
7
143
pitches thrown
166
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ian HappCHC1-4111
Carson KellyCHC2-2101
Michael ConfortoCHC3-4000
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-5002
Jose TrevinoCIN1-4002
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Clay Holmes (L)CHC5.13654
Chase BurnsCIN3.04224
Julian Aguiar (W)CIN3.04212
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · CHC 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 58%, CIN 42% · Updated Sep 18

Expected margin
CHC by 1.7
Expected score
CHC 5.5 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
9.3
CubsThe matchupReds
−137Our fair odds+137
5.5Expected runs3.8
+0.25Power rating−0.14
5.3Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game5.1
8.6Hits / game7.6
1.38Home runs / game1.33
4.2Walks drawn / game3.5
85−68Season record71−82
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CIN chance
Our model fair57.7%42.3%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−13758%−15460.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+13742%+12943.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.7
CHCChicago Cubs−1.7our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.7 expected
Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCIN wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more51%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more40%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CIN
Sep 16 vs ATL
last game
Sep 17 vs LAD
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 153+ games
CHC·CIN
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
5.3
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.1
85−68
season record
71−82
45−33
home record
37−41
40−35
away record
34−41
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.6
hits / game
7.6
1.38
home runs / game
1.33
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.37
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

CHC · CIN · 174 days
Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 3−7
Aug 30at CHCCIN 7 − 5
Aug 29at CHCCHC 17 − 5
Aug 28at CHCCIN 10 − 8
Jul 12at CINCHC 8 − 4
Jul 11at CINCHC 5 − 3
Jul 10at CINCIN 4 − 0
May 7at CHCCHC 8 − 3
May 6at CHCCHC 7 − 6
May 5at CHCCHC 3 − 2
May 4at CHCCHC 5 − 4

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 16vs ATL8 − 4W
Sep 15vs ATL3 − 6L
Sep 14vs ATL7 − 3W
Sep 13vs PIT3 − 4L
Sep 12vs PIT4 − 3W
Sep 11vs PIT12 − 2W
Sep 9at MIL6 − 8L
Sep 8at MIL3 − 4L
Sep 7at MIL3 − 4L
Sep 6at MIA3 − 10L

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 17vs LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16vs LAD6 − 2W
Sep 15vs LAD0 − 4L
Sep 14vs LAD1 − 4L
Sep 13at MIL4 − 3W
Sep 12at MIL9 − 13L
Sep 11at MIL0 − 20L
Sep 9at LAD1 − 14L
Sep 8at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 7at LAD3 − 6L