bayesRatings

Reds at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, Sep 13 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CIN 4 – MIL 3
← MLB / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000003010481
MIL020000100360
Team box
CIN·MIL
8
hits
6
1
home runs
2
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
130
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4113
Joey OrtizMIL1-3112
Jake BauersMIL1-4111
Tyler StephensonCIN1-2001
Elly De La CruzCIN2-5200
Sal StewartCIN2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase BurnsCIN3.02235
Brandon Williamson (W)CIN4.02102
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.01001
Robert GasserMIL5.03125
Abner Uribe (L)MIL1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · CIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 35%, MIL 65% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
MIL by 2.1
Expected score
MIL 5.9 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
9.7
RedsThe matchupBrewers
+189Our fair odds−189
3.8Expected runs5.9
−0.14Power rating+0.42
4.2Runs / game5.2
5.2Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game8.8
1.34Home runs / game0.97
3.5Walks drawn / game4.1
69−79Season record93−56
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair34.6%65.4%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+18935%+16637.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−18965%−19966.6%———
SpreadMIL by 2.1
CINCincinnati Reds+2.1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 2.1 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 17 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more54%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more44%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 5.11 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIL
Sep 12 at MIL
last game
Sep 12 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 148+ games
CIN·MIL
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
4.2
runs / game
5.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
69−79
season record
93−56
36−38
home record
52−25
33−41
away record
41−31
L5
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.8
1.34
home runs / game
0.97
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.58
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CIN · MIL · 169 days
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Sep 12at MILMIL 13 − 9
Sep 11at MILMIL 20 − 0
Sep 6at CINCIN 12 − 8
Sep 5at CINCIN 5 − 3
Sep 4at CINMIL 10 − 7
Jul 2at MILCIN 7 − 2
Jul 1at MILMIL 4 − 2
Jun 30at MILMIL 7 − 2
Jun 29at MILMIL 5 − 3
Jun 24at CINMIL 6 − 5

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Sep 12at MIL9 − 13L
Sep 11at MIL0 − 20L
Sep 9at LAD1 − 14L
Sep 8at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 7at LAD3 − 6L
Sep 6vs MIL12 − 8W
Sep 5vs MIL5 − 3W
Sep 4vs MIL7 − 10L
Sep 2vs SD7 − 3W
Sep 1vs SD4 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Sep 12vs CIN13 − 9W
Sep 11vs CIN20 − 0W
Sep 9vs CHC8 − 6W
Sep 8vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 7vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 6at CIN8 − 12L
Sep 5at CIN3 − 5L
Sep 4at CIN10 − 7W
Sep 3at CHC1 − 2L
Sep 2at CHC9 − 5W