bayesRatings

Reds at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 8 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final CIN 2 – LAD 3
← MLB / Sep 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN002000000250
LAD11001000371
Team box
CIN·LAD
5
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
8
strikeouts
7
146
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Elly De La CruzCIN2-4112
Teoscar HernandezLAD3-3101
Will SmithLAD1-3111
Max MuncyLAD2-4000
Tyler StephensonCIN1-2000
Dane MyersCIN1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Lodolo (L)CIN4.25336
Tarik Skubal (W)LAD7.14225
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 39%, LAD 61% · Updated Sep 8

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.4 – 3.9 CIN
Expected total
9.3
RedsThe matchupDodgers
+159Our fair odds−159
3.9Expected runs5.4
−0.09Power rating+0.30
4.2Runs / game4.9
5.0Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game8.6
1.35Home runs / game1.22
3.6Walks drawn / game3.8
69−75Season record87−57
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · LAD chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshi28.4%75.3%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+15939%+25228.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15961%−30675.3%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
CINCincinnati Reds+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.10 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·LAD
Sep 7 at LAD
last game
Sep 7 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 144+ games
CIN·LAD
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
4.2
runs / game
4.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.9
69−75
season record
87−57
36−38
home record
45−28
33−37
away record
42−29
L1
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.6
1.35
home runs / game
1.22
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.58
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

CIN · LAD · 164 days
Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
Sep 7at LADLAD 6 − 3
Oct 1, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4post
Sep 30, 2025at LADLAD 10 − 5post
Aug 27, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 2
Jul 29, 2025at CINLAD 5 − 4
Jul 28, 2025at CINLAD 5 − 2
May 26, 2024at CINCIN 4 − 1

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 7at LAD3 − 6L
Sep 6vs MIL12 − 8W
Sep 5vs MIL5 − 3W
Sep 4vs MIL7 − 10L
Sep 2vs SD7 − 3W
Sep 1vs SD4 − 3W
Aug 31vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 30at CHC7 − 5W
Aug 29at CHC5 − 17L
Aug 28at CHC10 − 8W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Sep 7vs CIN6 − 3W
Sep 6vs WSH7 − 5W
Sep 5vs WSH6 − 5W
Sep 4vs WSH5 − 3W
Sep 3vs STL3 − 2W
Sep 2vs STL6 − 8L
Sep 1vs STL8 − 13L
Aug 30at DET6 − 1W
Aug 29at DET1 − 2L
Aug 28at DET2 − 1W