bayesRatings

Reds at Dodgers

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 8:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final CIN 3 – LAD 6
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN100000110372
LAD00002301630
Team box
CIN·LAD
7
hits
3
2
home runs
1
1
walks
6
14
strikeouts
9
139
pitches thrown
126
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-3213
Elly De La CruzCIN2-4111
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4111
Carlos JorgeCIN2-4000
Hector RodriguezCIN2-4100
Dane MyersCIN0-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase BurnsCIN3.00015
Brandon Williamson (L)CIN4.13354
Emmet Sheehan (W)LAD5.231110
Evan Phillips (S)LAD1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
CIN +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 4 · CIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 39%, LAD 61% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.4 – 3.9 CIN
Expected total
9.3
RedsThe matchupDodgers
+156Our fair odds−156
3.9Expected runs5.4
−0.08Power rating+0.29
4.2Runs / game4.9
5.0Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game8.7
1.34Home runs / game1.22
3.6Walks drawn / game3.8
69−74Season record86−57
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · LAD chance
Our model fair39.0%61.0%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+15639%+15239.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15661%−18364.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
CINCincinnati Reds+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 20 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·LAD
Sep 6 vs MIL
last game
Sep 6 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
CIN·LAD
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
4.2
runs / game
4.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.9
69−74
season record
86−57
36−38
home record
44−28
33−36
away record
42−29
W2
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.7
1.34
home runs / game
1.22
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.57
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

CIN · LAD · 163 days
Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
Oct 1, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4post
Sep 30, 2025at LADLAD 10 − 5post
Aug 27, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 2
Jul 29, 2025at CINLAD 5 − 4
Jul 28, 2025at CINLAD 5 − 2
May 26, 2024at CINCIN 4 − 1
May 25, 2024at CINCIN 3 − 1

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 6vs MIL12 − 8W
Sep 5vs MIL5 − 3W
Sep 4vs MIL7 − 10L
Sep 2vs SD7 − 3W
Sep 1vs SD4 − 3W
Aug 31vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 30at CHC7 − 5W
Aug 29at CHC5 − 17L
Aug 28at CHC10 − 8W
Aug 26at SF10 − 9W

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Sep 6vs WSH7 − 5W
Sep 5vs WSH6 − 5W
Sep 4vs WSH5 − 3W
Sep 3vs STL3 − 2W
Sep 2vs STL6 − 8L
Sep 1vs STL8 − 13L
Aug 30at DET6 − 1W
Aug 29at DET1 − 2L
Aug 28at DET2 − 1W
Aug 27at ATL0 − 1L