bayesRatings

Nationals at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Sep 6 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final WSH 5 – LAD 7
← MLB / Sep 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000401000590
LAD001030037101
Team box
WSH·LAD
9
hits
10
1
home runs
1
6
walks
5
11
strikeouts
8
157
pitches thrown
170
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mookie BettsLAD1-5114
CJ AbramsWSH1-4111
Max MuncyLAD3-4200
Tommy EdmanLAD2-4201
Jacob YoungWSH2-4001
Harry FordWSH1-2202
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AlvarezWSH4.14325
Will Dion (L)WSH2.02323
Justin WrobleskiLAD3.08416
Bobby Miller (W)LAD3.01122
Edgardo Henriquez (S)LAD1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · WSH 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 39%, LAD 61% · Updated Sep 6

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 4.2 WSH
Expected total
9.4
NationalsThe matchupDodgers
+157Our fair odds−157
4.2Expected runs5.2
−0.10Power rating+0.29
5.2Runs / game4.9
5.1Allowed / game3.9
8.5Hits / game8.6
1.34Home runs / game1.22
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
67−77Season record85−57
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · LAD chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+15739%+15938.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15761%−19165.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 17 Kstarted
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.22 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·LAD
Sep 5 at LAD
last game
Sep 5 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 142+ games
WSH·LAD
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
5.2
runs / game
4.9
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
67−77
season record
85−57
33−40
home record
43−28
34−37
away record
42−29
L3
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
8.6
1.34
home runs / game
1.22
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.66
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

WSH · LAD · 162 days
Washington NationalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
Sep 5at LADLAD 6 − 5
Sep 4at LADLAD 5 − 3
Apr 5at WSHLAD 8 − 6
Apr 4at WSHLAD 10 − 5
Apr 3at WSHLAD 13 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at LADLAD 13 − 7
Jun 21, 2025at LADWSH 7 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 9, 2025at WSHLAD 6 − 5
Apr 8, 2025at WSHWSH 8 − 2

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Sep 5at LAD5 − 6L
Sep 4at LAD3 − 5L
Sep 2vs ATL0 − 9L
Sep 1vs ATL9 − 5W
Aug 31vs MIA6 − 3W
Aug 30vs MIA2 − 6L
Aug 29vs MIA5 − 4W
Aug 28vs MIA9 − 2W
Aug 27vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 26vs COL1 − 13L

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Sep 5vs WSH6 − 5W
Sep 4vs WSH5 − 3W
Sep 3vs STL3 − 2W
Sep 2vs STL6 − 8L
Sep 1vs STL8 − 13L
Aug 30at DET6 − 1W
Aug 29at DET1 − 2L
Aug 28at DET2 − 1W
Aug 27at ATL0 − 1L
Aug 26at ATL5 − 6L