bayesRatings

Nationals at Dodgers

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final WSH 3 – LAD 5
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH0000000033101
LAD00310100551
Team box
WSH·LAD
10
hits
5
0
home runs
1
2
walks
4
11
strikeouts
5
127
pitches thrown
153
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD1-2211
Mookie BettsLAD2-4101
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-3002
James WoodWSH2-5001
Andres ChaparroWSH2-5000
Brady HouseWSH2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jackson Kent (L)WSH5.04344
Blake Snell (W)LAD6.05027
Jack Dreyer (S)LAD1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +5
WSH +5
123456789
largest lead: LAD 5 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 39%, LAD 61% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 4.2 WSH
Expected total
9.4
NationalsThe matchupDodgers
+154Our fair odds−154
4.2Expected runs5.2
−0.09Power rating+0.27
5.2Runs / game4.9
5.1Allowed / game3.9
8.5Hits / game8.7
1.36Home runs / game1.22
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
67−75Season record83−57
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · LAD chance
Our model fair39.3%60.7%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+15439%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15461%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJackson Kent SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·LAD
Sep 2 vs ATL
last game
Sep 3 vs STL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
WSH·LAD
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
5.2
runs / game
4.9
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
67−75
season record
83−57
33−40
home record
41−28
34−35
away record
42−29
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
8.7
1.36
home runs / game
1.22
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.66
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

WSH · LAD · 160 days
Washington NationalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
Apr 5at WSHLAD 8 − 6
Apr 4at WSHLAD 10 − 5
Apr 3at WSHLAD 13 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at LADLAD 13 − 7
Jun 21, 2025at LADWSH 7 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 9, 2025at WSHLAD 6 − 5
Apr 8, 2025at WSHWSH 8 − 2
Apr 7, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2024at WSHLAD 2 − 1

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 2vs ATL0 − 9L
Sep 1vs ATL9 − 5W
Aug 31vs MIA6 − 3W
Aug 30vs MIA2 − 6L
Aug 29vs MIA5 − 4W
Aug 28vs MIA9 − 2W
Aug 27vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 26vs COL1 − 13L
Aug 25vs COL1 − 3L
Aug 24vs COL13 − 3W

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 3vs STL3 − 2W
Sep 2vs STL6 − 8L
Sep 1vs STL8 − 13L
Aug 30at DET6 − 1W
Aug 29at DET1 − 2L
Aug 28at DET2 − 1W
Aug 27at ATL0 − 1L
Aug 26at ATL5 − 6L
Aug 25at ATL3 − 4L
Aug 23vs PIT4 − 0W