bayesRatings

Brewers at Reds

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 5:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final MIL 10 – CIN 7
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL02205100010120
CIN123000100781
Team box
MIL·CIN
12
hits
8
0
home runs
2
5
walks
5
11
strikeouts
11
173
pitches thrown
200
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL3-4203
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-3213
Cooper PrattMIL1-4104
Matt McLainCIN1-4112
Elly De La CruzCIN3-5101
David HamiltonMIL2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane DrohanMIL4.05625
Chad Patrick (W)MIL2.01021
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00003
Rhett Lowder (L)CIN4.06642

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
MIL +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · MIL 4lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 59%, CIN 41% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
MIL by 1.6
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.5 CIN
Expected total
8.7
BrewersThe matchupReds
−147Our fair odds+147
5.1Expected runs3.5
+0.37Power rating−0.09
5.0Runs / game4.2
3.8Allowed / game4.9
8.7Hits / game7.6
0.93Home runs / game1.33
4.1Walks drawn / game3.6
87−54Season record67−73
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair59.5%40.5%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14759%−16161.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+14741%+13442.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.6
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.6our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.6 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCIN wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more50%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.09 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CIN
Sep 3 at CHC
last game
Sep 2 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
MIL·CIN
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.0
runs / game
4.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
87−54
season record
67−73
47−25
home record
34−37
40−29
away record
33−36
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
7.6
0.93
home runs / game
1.33
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.45
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

MIL · CIN · 160 days
Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 3−7
Jul 2at MILCIN 7 − 2
Jul 1at MILMIL 4 − 2
Jun 30at MILMIL 7 − 2
Jun 29at MILMIL 5 − 3
Jun 24at CINMIL 6 − 5
Jun 23at CINMIL 2 − 0
Jun 22at CINMIL 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at MILCIN 7 − 4
Sep 26, 2025at MILCIN 3 − 1

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 3at CHC1 − 2L
Sep 2at CHC9 − 5W
Sep 1at CHC9 − 4W
Aug 31at CHC3 − 17L
Aug 30vs TEX4 − 7L
Aug 29vs TEX5 − 3W
Aug 28vs TEX6 − 1W
Aug 27at NYM8 − 2W
Aug 26at NYM8 − 1W
Aug 25at NYM2 − 3L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 2vs SD7 − 3W
Sep 1vs SD4 − 3W
Aug 31vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 30at CHC7 − 5W
Aug 29at CHC5 − 17L
Aug 28at CHC10 − 8W
Aug 26at SF10 − 9W
Aug 25at SF1 − 3L
Aug 24at SF0 − 5L
Aug 23at ARI3 − 5L