bayesRatings

Reds at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CIN 9 – MIL 13
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0113000409141
MIL4013500013140
Team box
CIN·MIL
14
hits
14
2
home runs
3
3
walks
6
11
strikeouts
7
173
pitches thrown
166
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Garrett MitchellMIL4-5214
Juan BritoCIN3-4113
Eugenio SuarezCIN3-4312
William ContrerasMIL1-3213
Brice TurangMIL2-4212
Cooper PrattMIL3-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Singer (L)CIN4.08855
Shane DrohanMIL3.25524
Chad Patrick (W)MIL1.11004

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +8
CIN +8
123456789
largest lead: MIL 8 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 35%, MIL 65% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
MIL by 2.0
Expected score
MIL 5.8 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
9.6
RedsThe matchupBrewers
+186Our fair odds−186
3.8Expected runs5.8
−0.13Power rating+0.41
4.2Runs / game5.1
5.1Allowed / game3.9
7.6Hits / game8.8
1.33Home runs / game0.95
3.6Walks drawn / game4.1
69−78Season record92−56
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair35.0%65.0%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+18635%+18135.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−18665%−21868.5%———
SpreadMIL by 2.0
CINCincinnati Reds+2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 2.0 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 17 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 17 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more53%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more43%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.80 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIL
Sep 11 at MIL
last game
Sep 11 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
CIN·MIL
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
4.2
runs / game
5.1
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
69−78
season record
92−56
36−38
home record
51−25
33−40
away record
41−31
L4
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.8
1.33
home runs / game
0.95
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.58
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CIN · MIL · 168 days
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Sep 11at MILMIL 20 − 0
Sep 6at CINCIN 12 − 8
Sep 5at CINCIN 5 − 3
Sep 4at CINMIL 10 − 7
Jul 2at MILCIN 7 − 2
Jul 1at MILMIL 4 − 2
Jun 30at MILMIL 7 − 2
Jun 29at MILMIL 5 − 3
Jun 24at CINMIL 6 − 5
Jun 23at CINMIL 2 − 0

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Sep 11at MIL0 − 20L
Sep 9at LAD1 − 14L
Sep 8at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 7at LAD3 − 6L
Sep 6vs MIL12 − 8W
Sep 5vs MIL5 − 3W
Sep 4vs MIL7 − 10L
Sep 2vs SD7 − 3W
Sep 1vs SD4 − 3W
Aug 31vs SD0 − 5L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Sep 11vs CIN20 − 0W
Sep 9vs CHC8 − 6W
Sep 8vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 7vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 6at CIN8 − 12L
Sep 5at CIN3 − 5L
Sep 4at CIN10 − 7W
Sep 3at CHC1 − 2L
Sep 2at CHC9 − 5W
Sep 1at CHC9 − 4W