bayesRatings

Reds at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Sep 11 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CIN 0 – MIL 20
← MLB / Sep 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000000000022
MIL2601800320231
Team box
CIN·MIL
2
hits
23
0
home runs
4
2
walks
2
8
strikeouts
6
138
pitches thrown
114
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL2-5216
Brice TurangMIL3-3314
Garrett MitchellMIL3-5314
Jackson ChourioMIL4-6302
Jake BauersMIL2-5112
Joey OrtizMIL4-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Abbott (L)CIN2.09700
Dustin May (W)MIL6.02016
Garrett Stallings (S)MIL3.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +20
CIN +20
123456789
largest lead: MIL 20 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 36%, MIL 64% · Updated Sep 11

Expected margin
MIL by 1.8
Expected score
MIL 5.6 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
9.3
RedsThe matchupBrewers
+175Our fair odds−175
3.8Expected runs5.6
−0.11Power rating+0.38
4.2Runs / game5.0
5.0Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game8.7
1.34Home runs / game0.93
3.6Walks drawn / game4.1
69−77Season record91−56
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair36.3%63.7%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+17536%+16637.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−17564%−19966.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.8
CINCincinnati Reds+1.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.8 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more52%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more41%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MILDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 8.1 IP, 6.48 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIL
Sep 9 at LAD
last game
Sep 9 vs CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 146+ games
CIN·MIL
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.2
runs / game
5.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.9
69−77
season record
91−56
36−38
home record
50−25
33−39
away record
41−31
L3
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.7
1.34
home runs / game
0.93
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.57
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CIN · MIL · 167 days
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Sep 6at CINCIN 12 − 8
Sep 5at CINCIN 5 − 3
Sep 4at CINMIL 10 − 7
Jul 2at MILCIN 7 − 2
Jul 1at MILMIL 4 − 2
Jun 30at MILMIL 7 − 2
Jun 29at MILMIL 5 − 3
Jun 24at CINMIL 6 − 5
Jun 23at CINMIL 2 − 0
Jun 22at CINMIL 2 − 1

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Sep 9at LAD1 − 14L
Sep 8at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 7at LAD3 − 6L
Sep 6vs MIL12 − 8W
Sep 5vs MIL5 − 3W
Sep 4vs MIL7 − 10L
Sep 2vs SD7 − 3W
Sep 1vs SD4 − 3W
Aug 31vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 30at CHC7 − 5W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Sep 9vs CHC8 − 6W
Sep 8vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 7vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 6at CIN8 − 12L
Sep 5at CIN3 − 5L
Sep 4at CIN10 − 7W
Sep 3at CHC1 − 2L
Sep 2at CHC9 − 5W
Sep 1at CHC9 − 4W
Aug 31at CHC3 − 17L