bayesRatings

Dodgers at Reds

MLB · Monday, Sep 14 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final LAD 4 – CIN 1
← MLB / Sep 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD010200100430
CIN000000001140
Team box
LAD·CIN
3
hits
4
2
home runs
1
6
walks
1
6
strikeouts
11
118
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-3212
Elly De La CruzCIN1-4111
Kyle TuckerLAD1-2211
Enrique HernandezLAD1-3001
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-3000
Dane MyersCIN1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tarik Skubal (W)LAD7.03019
Nick Lodolo (L)CIN7.03444

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
LAD +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · LAD 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 59%, CIN 41% · Updated Sep 14

Expected margin
LAD by 1.6
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
9.1
DodgersThe matchupReds
−143Our fair odds+143
5.3Expected runs3.8
+0.32Power rating−0.13
5.0Runs / game4.2
3.8Allowed / game5.2
8.6Hits / game7.7
1.23Home runs / game1.34
3.8Walks drawn / game3.5
90−59Season record70−79
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · CIN chance
Our model fair58.8%41.2%
Kalshi68.5%35.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14359%−21868.5%———
CINCincinnati Reds+14341%+18135.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.6our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCIN wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more50%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·CIN
Sep 13 at MIA
last game
Sep 13 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 149+ games
LAD·CIN
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
5.0
runs / game
4.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.2
90−59
season record
70−79
47−28
home record
36−38
43−31
away record
34−41
L2
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
7.7
1.23
home runs / game
1.34
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.40
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

LAD · CIN · 170 days
Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 1−9
Sep 9at LADLAD 14 − 1
Sep 8at LADLAD 3 − 2
Sep 7at LADLAD 6 − 3
Oct 1, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4post
Sep 30, 2025at LADLAD 10 − 5post
Aug 27, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 2
Jul 29, 2025at CINLAD 5 − 4

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Sep 13at MIA4 − 6L
Sep 12at MIA3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIA6 − 2W
Sep 9vs CIN14 − 1W
Sep 8vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 7vs CIN6 − 3W
Sep 6vs WSH7 − 5W
Sep 5vs WSH6 − 5W
Sep 4vs WSH5 − 3W
Sep 3vs STL3 − 2W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 13at MIL4 − 3W
Sep 12at MIL9 − 13L
Sep 11at MIL0 − 20L
Sep 9at LAD1 − 14L
Sep 8at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 7at LAD3 − 6L
Sep 6vs MIL12 − 8W
Sep 5vs MIL5 − 3W
Sep 4vs MIL7 − 10L
Sep 2vs SD7 − 3W