bayesRatings

Dodgers at Marlins

MLB · Friday, Sep 11 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final LAD 6 – MIA 2
← MLB / Sep 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD001001400681
MIA000001010290
Team box
LAD·MIA
8
hits
9
1
home runs
0
5
walks
3
6
strikeouts
11
169
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD3-3215
Otto LopezMIA4-5000
Max MuncyLAD3-4100
Will SmithLAD1-4001
Javier SanojaMIA2-4200
Agustin RamirezMIA1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Blake Snell (W)LAD5.24128
Ryan Gusto (L)MIA6.05233

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · LAD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 57%, MIA 43% · Updated Sep 11

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 4.0 MIA
Expected total
8.9
DodgersThe matchupMarlins
−132Our fair odds+132
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.33Power rating−0.03
5.0Runs / game4.4
3.8Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.23Home runs / game1.03
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
89−57Season record72−75
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · MIA chance
Our model fair56.8%43.2%
Kalshi66.6%37.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13257%−19966.6%———
MIAMiami Marlins+13243%+16637.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byMIA wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 0.53 ERA, 23 Kstarted
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·MIA
Sep 9 vs CIN
last game
Sep 9 vs NYM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 146+ games
LAD·MIA
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.0
runs / game
4.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
89−57
season record
72−75
47−28
home record
43−32
42−29
away record
29−43
W7
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.23
home runs / game
1.03
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.40
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

LAD · MIA · 167 days
Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Apr 29at LADMIA 3 − 2
Apr 28at LADMIA 2 − 1
Apr 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at MIALAD 10 − 1
May 6, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
May 5, 2025at MIALAD 7 − 4
Apr 30, 2025at LADLAD 12 − 7
Apr 29, 2025at LADLAD 15 − 2
Apr 28, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 6
Sep 19, 2024at MIALAD 20 − 4

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Sep 9vs CIN14 − 1W
Sep 8vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 7vs CIN6 − 3W
Sep 6vs WSH7 − 5W
Sep 5vs WSH6 − 5W
Sep 4vs WSH5 − 3W
Sep 3vs STL3 − 2W
Sep 2vs STL6 − 8L
Sep 1vs STL8 − 13L
Aug 30at DET6 − 1W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 9vs NYM14 − 15L
Sep 8vs NYM5 − 7L
Sep 7vs NYM4 − 9L
Sep 6vs CHC10 − 3W
Sep 5vs CHC5 − 6L
Sep 4vs CHC1 − 6L
Sep 3at KC3 − 7L
Sep 2at KC9 − 6W
Sep 1at KC6 − 3W
Aug 31at WSH3 − 6L