bayesRatings

Mets at Marlins

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 12:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final NYM 9 – MIA 4
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM2113020009160
MIA040000000462
Team box
NYM·MIA
16
hits
6
0
home runs
1
6
walks
2
10
strikeouts
12
139
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
A.J. EwingNYM3-5003
Graham PauleyMIA1-3113
Javier SanojaMIA2-3101
Marcus SemienNYM2-5201
Bo BichetteNYM2-5101
Nick MorabitoNYM2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jonah Tong (W)NYM5.04417
Eury Perez (L)MIA4.010535

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +5
NYM +5
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · NYM 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, MIA 53% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.4 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupMarlins
+111Our fair odds−111
4.2Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating−0.00
4.2Runs / game4.4
4.5Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.23Home runs / game1.03
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
65−78Season record72−72
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · MIA chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11147%+11446.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−11153%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.2our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMJonah Tong SP · last 3 starts: 7.2 IP, 12.91 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 8.53 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·MIA
Sep 6 vs SF
last game
Sep 6 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
NYM·MIA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.2
runs / game
4.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
65−78
season record
72−72
34−40
home record
43−29
31−38
away record
29−43
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.23
home runs / game
1.03
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.61
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

NYM · MIA · 163 days
New York MetsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Aug 2at NYMMIA 2 − 0
Aug 1at NYMMIA 6 − 2
Jul 31at NYMMIA 5 − 2
Jul 30at NYMNYM 4 − 2
May 31at NYMNYM 10 − 1
May 30at NYMNYM 6 − 1
May 29at NYMNYM 9 − 7
May 24at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 23at MIAMIA 4 − 1
May 22at MIAMIA 2 − 1

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 6vs SF4 − 2W
Sep 5vs SF5 − 9L
Sep 4vs SF10 − 6W
Sep 2at TB10 − 4W
Sep 1at TB2 − 6L
Aug 31at TB3 − 2W
Aug 30vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 29vs HOU6 − 2W
Aug 28vs HOU1 − 3L
Aug 27vs MIL2 − 8L

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 6vs CHC10 − 3W
Sep 5vs CHC5 − 6L
Sep 4vs CHC1 − 6L
Sep 3at KC3 − 7L
Sep 2at KC9 − 6W
Sep 1at KC6 − 3W
Aug 31at WSH3 − 6L
Aug 30at WSH6 − 2W
Aug 29at WSH4 − 5L
Aug 28at WSH2 − 9L