bayesRatings

Mets at Marlins

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 9 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final NYM 15 – MIA 14
← MLB / Sep 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM06200061015150
MIA00030512314200
Team box
NYM·MIA
15
hits
20
2
home runs
2
6
walks
4
7
strikeouts
7
201
pitches thrown
184
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joe MackMIA3-5213
Christopher MorelNYM3-4313
Jakob MarseeMIA4-6103
Luis TorrensNYM3-5204
Owen CaissieMIA2-5212
Francisco LindorNYM1-5213
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robert StockNYM4.05324
Daniel Duarte (W)NYM1.22112
Tobias Myers (S)NYM0.21001
Janson JunkMIA3.08810
Josh Ekness (L)MIA0.00320

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +8
NYM +8
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · NYM 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 48%, MIA 52% · Updated Sep 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.5 – 4.4 NYM
Expected total
8.8
MetsThe matchupMarlins
+107Our fair odds−107
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game4.4
4.5Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.23Home runs / game1.02
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
67−78Season record72−74
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10748%+10548.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10752%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMRobert Stock SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·MIA
Sep 8 at MIA
last game
Sep 8 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 145+ games
NYM·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
4.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
67−78
season record
72−74
34−40
home record
43−31
33−38
away record
29−43
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.23
home runs / game
1.02
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.61
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

NYM · MIA · 165 days
New York MetsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Sep 8at MIANYM 7 − 5
Sep 7at MIANYM 9 − 4
Aug 2at NYMMIA 2 − 0
Aug 1at NYMMIA 6 − 2
Jul 31at NYMMIA 5 − 2
Jul 30at NYMNYM 4 − 2
May 31at NYMNYM 10 − 1
May 30at NYMNYM 6 − 1
May 29at NYMNYM 9 − 7
May 24at MIAMIA 4 − 0

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 8at MIA7 − 5W
Sep 7at MIA9 − 4W
Sep 6vs SF4 − 2W
Sep 5vs SF5 − 9L
Sep 4vs SF10 − 6W
Sep 2at TB10 − 4W
Sep 1at TB2 − 6L
Aug 31at TB3 − 2W
Aug 30vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 29vs HOU6 − 2W

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 8vs NYM5 − 7L
Sep 7vs NYM4 − 9L
Sep 6vs CHC10 − 3W
Sep 5vs CHC5 − 6L
Sep 4vs CHC1 − 6L
Sep 3at KC3 − 7L
Sep 2at KC9 − 6W
Sep 1at KC6 − 3W
Aug 31at WSH3 − 6L
Aug 30at WSH6 − 2W