bayesRatings

Dodgers at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 16 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final LAD 2 – CIN 6
← MLB / Sep 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD001001000270
CIN002011206130
Team box
LAD·CIN
7
hits
13
0
home runs
2
8
walks
2
10
strikeouts
5
164
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Elly De La CruzCIN1-3212
Sal StewartCIN3-4101
Juan BritoCIN3-3001
Dane MyersCIN1-5111
Mookie BettsLAD3-4100
Will SmithLAD2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Blake SnellLAD1.01001
Seth Halvorsen (L)LAD1.02200
Andrew AbbottCIN4.23155
Tejay Antone (W)CIN0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
LAD +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 4 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 60%, CIN 40% · Updated Sep 16

Expected margin
LAD by 1.7
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.6 CIN
Expected total
9.0
DodgersThe matchupReds
−148Our fair odds+148
5.3Expected runs3.6
+0.33Power rating−0.14
5.0Runs / game4.1
3.8Allowed / game5.1
8.6Hits / game7.6
1.25Home runs / game1.32
3.9Walks drawn / game3.5
92−59Season record70−81
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · CIN chance
Our model fair59.7%40.3%
Kalshi69.5%34.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14860%−22869.5%———
CINCincinnati Reds+14840%+18934.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.7
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.7our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.7 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCIN wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more51%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more40%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.08 ERA, 25 Kstarted
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 15.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·CIN
Sep 15 at CIN
last game
Sep 15 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 151+ games
LAD·CIN
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
5.0
runs / game
4.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
92−59
season record
70−81
47−28
home record
36−40
45−31
away record
34−41
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
7.6
1.25
home runs / game
1.32
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.40
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

LAD · CIN · 172 days
Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 0−10
Sep 15at CINLAD 4 − 0
Sep 14at CINLAD 4 − 1
Sep 9at LADLAD 14 − 1
Sep 8at LADLAD 3 − 2
Sep 7at LADLAD 6 − 3
Oct 1, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4post
Sep 30, 2025at LADLAD 10 − 5post
Aug 27, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 0

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 15at CIN4 − 0W
Sep 14at CIN4 − 1W
Sep 13at MIA4 − 6L
Sep 12at MIA3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIA6 − 2W
Sep 9vs CIN14 − 1W
Sep 8vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 7vs CIN6 − 3W
Sep 6vs WSH7 − 5W
Sep 5vs WSH6 − 5W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 15vs LAD0 − 4L
Sep 14vs LAD1 − 4L
Sep 13at MIL4 − 3W
Sep 12at MIL9 − 13L
Sep 11at MIL0 − 20L
Sep 9at LAD1 − 14L
Sep 8at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 7at LAD3 − 6L
Sep 6vs MIL12 − 8W
Sep 5vs MIL5 − 3W