bayesRatings

Dodgers at Reds

MLB · Thursday, Sep 17 · 11:40 AM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final LAD 8 – CIN 2
← MLB / Sep 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD2203000018120
CIN000100001270
Team box
LAD·CIN
12
hits
7
2
home runs
1
6
walks
0
3
strikeouts
8
131
pitches thrown
168
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD4-5213
Sal StewartCIN2-4211
Miguel RojasLAD2-5211
Max MuncyLAD2-4002
Freddie FreemanLAD2-3201
TJ FriedlCIN2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin WrobleskiLAD3.00003
Landon Knack (W)LAD4.04002
Brady Singer (L)CIN3.19740

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +7
LAD +7
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · LAD 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 59%, CIN 41% · Updated Sep 17

Expected margin
LAD by 1.6
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.7 CIN
Expected total
9.0
DodgersThe matchupReds
−144Our fair odds+144
5.3Expected runs3.7
+0.32Power rating−0.13
4.9Runs / game4.2
3.8Allowed / game5.1
8.6Hits / game7.6
1.24Home runs / game1.33
3.9Walks drawn / game3.5
92−60Season record71−81
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · CIN chance
Our model fair59.1%40.9%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:40 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14459%−16862.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+14441%+14041.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.6our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCIN wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more50%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 8.03 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 12.15 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·CIN
Sep 16 at CIN
last game
Sep 16 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 152+ games
LAD·CIN
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.9
runs / game
4.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
92−60
season record
71−81
47−28
home record
37−40
45−32
away record
34−41
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
7.6
1.24
home runs / game
1.33
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.39
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

LAD · CIN · 173 days
Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 1−9
Sep 16at CINCIN 6 − 2
Sep 15at CINLAD 4 − 0
Sep 14at CINLAD 4 − 1
Sep 9at LADLAD 14 − 1
Sep 8at LADLAD 3 − 2
Sep 7at LADLAD 6 − 3
Oct 1, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 4post
Sep 30, 2025at LADLAD 10 − 5post
Aug 27, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 16at CIN2 − 6L
Sep 15at CIN4 − 0W
Sep 14at CIN4 − 1W
Sep 13at MIA4 − 6L
Sep 12at MIA3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIA6 − 2W
Sep 9vs CIN14 − 1W
Sep 8vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 7vs CIN6 − 3W
Sep 6vs WSH7 − 5W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 16vs LAD6 − 2W
Sep 15vs LAD0 − 4L
Sep 14vs LAD1 − 4L
Sep 13at MIL4 − 3W
Sep 12at MIL9 − 13L
Sep 11at MIL0 − 20L
Sep 9at LAD1 − 14L
Sep 8at LAD2 − 3L
Sep 7at LAD3 − 6L
Sep 6vs MIL12 − 8W