bayesRatings

Marlins at Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final MIA 3 – CHC 2
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA0000021003100
CHC000002000280
Team box
MIA·CHC
10
hits
8
1
home runs
0
2
walks
2
10
strikeouts
9
132
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle StowersMIA1-4112
Dansby SwansonCHC1-3002
Michael BuschCHC2-4100
Griffin ConineMIA2-4000
Javier SanojaMIA2-4000
Michael ConfortoCHC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan GustoMIA5.16225
Cade Gibson (W)MIA1.00002
Sandy Alcantara (S)MIA1.01000
Kevin GausmanCHC5.26217
Ryan Rolison (L)CHC0.22101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · MIA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 41%, CHC 59% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 5.5 – 4.5 MIA
Expected total
10.0
MarlinsThe matchupCubs
+143Our fair odds−143
4.5Expected runs5.5
−0.02Power rating+0.26
4.5Runs / game5.3
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.03Home runs / game1.38
3.4Walks drawn / game4.2
77−80Season record87−70
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CHC chance
Our model fair41.2%58.8%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+14341%+15938.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−14359%−19165.6%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
MIAMiami Marlins+1.1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Miami Marlins by 16 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more36%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHCKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CHC
Sep 22 at CHC
last game
Sep 22 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
MIA·CHC
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.5
runs / game
5.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
77−80
season record
87−70
45−33
home record
45−34
32−47
away record
42−36
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.03
home runs / game
1.38
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.62
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

MIA · CHC · 179 days
Miami MarlinsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Sep 22at CHCMIA 8 − 2
Sep 6at MIAMIA 10 − 3
Sep 5at MIACHC 6 − 5
Sep 4at MIACHC 6 − 1
May 21, 2025at MIACHC 2 − 1
May 20, 2025at MIACHC 14 − 1
May 19, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 14, 2025at CHCMIA 3 − 1
May 13, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 4
May 12, 2025at CHCCHC 5 − 2

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 22at CHC8 − 2W
Sep 20at SD3 − 7L
Sep 19at SD6 − 7L
Sep 18at SD2 − 8L
Sep 16at ARI4 − 3W
Sep 15at ARI4 − 2W
Sep 14at ARI7 − 8L
Sep 13vs LAD6 − 4W
Sep 12vs LAD4 − 3W
Sep 11vs LAD2 − 6L

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 22vs MIA2 − 8L
Sep 20at CIN9 − 1W
Sep 19at CIN5 − 2W
Sep 18at CIN4 − 6L
Sep 16vs ATL8 − 4W
Sep 15vs ATL3 − 6L
Sep 14vs ATL7 − 3W
Sep 13vs PIT3 − 4L
Sep 12vs PIT4 − 3W
Sep 11vs PIT12 − 2W