Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Player | Team | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty France | SD | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Agustin Ramirez | MIA | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dustin Harris | SD | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jackson Merrill | SD | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Javier Sanoja | MIA | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Samad Taylor | SD | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | MIA | 3.2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Cade Gibson (L) | MIA | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Pivetta (W) | SD | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was MIA 45%, SD 55% · Updated Sep 18
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CT | Polymarket US | ProphetX | Novig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| MIAMiami Marlins | +12545% | +16637.6% | — | — | — |
| SDSan Diego Padres | −12555% | −19966.6% | — | — | — |
| SpreadSD by 0.5 | |||||
| MIAMiami Marlins | +0.5our margin | — | — | — | — |
| SDSan Diego Padres | −0.5our margin | — | — | — | — |
| Totalwe expect 8.3 | |||||
| Over | 8.3our total | — | — | — | — |
| Under | 8.3our total | — | — | — | — |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
San Diego Padres by 0.5 expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Total range
8.3 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Starting Pitchers
from the box scoreStarting pitchers are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.