bayesRatings

Nationals at Padres

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 4:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final WSH 2 – SD 3
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000002000250
SD10200000390
Team box
WSH·SD
5
hits
9
1
home runs
0
0
walks
3
8
strikeouts
4
135
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dylan CrewsWSH2-4112
Jackson MerrillSD3-4002
Manny MachadoSD2-4201
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-4100
Xander BogaertsSD1-3000
Jorbit VivasWSH1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake Irvin (L)WSH5.28323
Nick Pivetta (W)SD5.02002
Mason Miller (S)SD1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 3 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 43%, SD 57% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
SD by 0.5
Expected score
SD 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
Expected total
8.5
NationalsThe matchupPadres
+130Our fair odds−130
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.10Power rating+0.09
5.2Runs / game4.2
5.1Allowed / game4.2
8.5Hits / game7.8
1.34Home runs / game1.11
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
67−78Season record75−68
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · SD chance
Our model fair43.4%56.6%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 4:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13043%+16637.6%———
SDSan Diego Padres−13057%−19966.6%———
SpreadSD by 0.5
WSHWashington Nationals+0.5our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.5 expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more39%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SDNick Pivetta SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·SD
Sep 6 at LAD
last game
Sep 6 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
WSH·SD
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
5.2
runs / game
4.2
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
67−78
season record
75−68
33−40
home record
43−29
34−38
away record
32−39
L4
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
7.8
1.34
home runs / game
1.11
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.66
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

WSH · SD · 163 days
Washington NationalsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
May 31at WSHWSH 4 − 2
May 30at WSHWSH 9 − 4
May 29at WSHSD 7 − 5
Jul 20, 2025at WSHSD 8 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at WSHSD 7 − 2
Jun 25, 2025at SDSD 1 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 23, 2025at SDWSH 10 − 6
Jul 25, 2024at WSHSD 3 − 0

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Sep 6at LAD5 − 7L
Sep 5at LAD5 − 6L
Sep 4at LAD3 − 5L
Sep 2vs ATL0 − 9L
Sep 1vs ATL9 − 5W
Aug 31vs MIA6 − 3W
Aug 30vs MIA2 − 6L
Aug 29vs MIA5 − 4W
Aug 28vs MIA9 − 2W
Aug 27vs COL7 − 1W

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 6vs NYY4 − 3W
Sep 5vs NYY1 − 5L
Sep 4vs NYY3 − 2W
Sep 2at CIN3 − 7L
Sep 1at CIN3 − 4L
Aug 31at CIN5 − 0W
Aug 30at TB4 − 5L
Aug 29at TB6 − 7L
Aug 28at TB4 − 9L
Aug 26vs PIT3 − 0W