bayesRatings

Padres at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SD 3 – COL 9
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD1100100003110
COL002005209160
Team box
SD·COL
11
hits
16
3
home runs
2
1
walks
1
6
strikeouts
3
160
pitches thrown
111
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole CarriggCOL4-5225
Troy JohnstonCOL3-3102
Austin HaysSD2-3111
Luis CampusanoSD2-4111
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-5111
Brett SullivanCOL1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walker BuehlerSD4.27211
Wandy Peralta (L)SD0.24401
Kyle FreelandCOL4.08301
Ryan Feltner (W)COL5.03015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +6
SD +6
123456789
largest lead: COL 6 · SD 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 64%, COL 36% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
SD by 1.7
Expected score
SD 6.3 – 4.7 COL
Expected total
11.0
PadresThe matchupRockies
−175Our fair odds+175
6.3Expected runs4.7
+0.12Power rating−0.53
4.3Runs / game4.7
4.2Allowed / game5.8
7.9Hits / game8.6
1.11Home runs / game1.11
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
82−68Season record55−95
9−1Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · COL chance
Our model fair63.7%36.3%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−17564%−19165.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+17536%+15938.6%———
SpreadSD by 1.7
SDSan Diego Padres−1.7our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.7 expected
San Diego Padres by 18 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 17 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCOL wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more50%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 13 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·COL
Sep 14 at COL
last game
Sep 14 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 150+ games
SD·COL
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
4.3
runs / game
4.7
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.8
82−68
season record
55−95
46−29
home record
30−42
36−39
away record
25−53
W8
streak
L8
9−1
last 10
1−9
7.9
hits / game
8.6
1.11
home runs / game
1.11
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.42
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

SD · COL · 171 days
San Diego PadresColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 1−9
Sep 14at COLSD 8 − 7
Jul 29at SDSD 3 − 1
Jul 28at SDSD 8 − 7
Apr 23at COLSD 10 − 8
Apr 22at COLCOL 8 − 3
Apr 21at COLSD 1 − 0
Apr 12at SDSD 7 − 2
Apr 11at SDSD 9 − 5
Apr 10at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 9at SDSD 7 − 3

SD · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Sep 14at COL8 − 7W
Sep 13at SF6 − 4W
Sep 12at SF7 − 6W
Sep 11at SF7 − 5W
Sep 9vs WSH9 − 2W
Sep 8vs WSH5 − 4W
Sep 7vs WSH3 − 2W
Sep 6vs NYY4 − 3W
Sep 5vs NYY1 − 5L
Sep 4vs NYY3 − 2W

COL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Sep 14vs SD7 − 8L
Sep 13at DET1 − 8L
Sep 12at DET7 − 11L
Sep 11at DET2 − 6L
Sep 10at NYY3 − 10L
Sep 9at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 8at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 6vs STL8 − 10L
Sep 5vs STL10 − 7W
Sep 4vs STL6 − 7L