bayesRatings

Padres at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final SD 7 – SF 6
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0211111007130
SF210000030681
Team box
SD·SF
13
hits
8
2
home runs
4
6
walks
0
4
strikeouts
8
134
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drew GilbertSF2-4212
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-3111
Rafael DeversSF1-4112
Xander BogaertsSD4-5200
Dustin HarrisSD1-4003
Jackson MerrillSD1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael King (W)SD7.05304
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00002
Cesar Perdomo (L)SF4.210523

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
SD +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 2 · SD 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 54%, SF 46% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
SD by 0.5
Expected score
SD 4.5 – 4.0 SF
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupGiants
−117Our fair odds+117
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.11Power rating−0.13
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.1Allowed / game4.7
7.9Hits / game8.4
1.10Home runs / game1.13
3.5Walks drawn / game2.8
79−68Season record62−86
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · SF chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−11754%−19165.6%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11746%+15938.6%———
SpreadSD by 0.5
SDSan Diego Padres−0.5our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.5 expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySF wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more40%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more30%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted
SFCesar Perdomo RP · last 1 start: 6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·SF
Sep 11 at SF
last game
Sep 11 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
SD·SF
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
79−68
season record
62−86
46−29
home record
36−37
33−39
away record
26−49
W5
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.4
1.10
home runs / game
1.13
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.41
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

SD · SF · 168 days
San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Sep 11at SFSD 7 − 5
Aug 2at SDSD 5 − 4
Aug 1at SDSD 6 − 5
Jul 31at SDSD 7 − 0
Jul 30at SDSF 4 − 1
May 6at SFSD 5 − 1
May 5at SFSD 10 − 5
May 4at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 1at SDSD 7 − 1
Mar 31at SDSF 9 − 3

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Sep 11at SF7 − 5W
Sep 9vs WSH9 − 2W
Sep 8vs WSH5 − 4W
Sep 7vs WSH3 − 2W
Sep 6vs NYY4 − 3W
Sep 5vs NYY1 − 5L
Sep 4vs NYY3 − 2W
Sep 2at CIN3 − 7L
Sep 1at CIN3 − 4L
Aug 31at CIN5 − 0W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 11vs SD5 − 7L
Sep 9vs STL7 − 6W
Sep 8vs STL2 − 1W
Sep 7vs STL5 − 4W
Sep 6at NYM2 − 4L
Sep 5at NYM9 − 5W
Sep 4at NYM6 − 10L
Sep 3at PIT2 − 5L
Sep 2at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 1at PIT12 − 13L