bayesRatings

Padres at Giants

MLB · Friday, Sep 11 · 9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final SD 7 – SF 5
← MLB / Sep 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0250000007120
SF100040000561
Team box
SD·SF
12
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
6
8
strikeouts
11
167
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF1-4114
Freddy FerminSD2-4002
Dustin HarrisSD2-3202
Xander BogaertsSD1-5102
Jackson MerrillSD3-5200
Bryce EldridgeSF2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robbie Ray (W)SD5.04545
Mason Miller (S)SD1.01022
Anthony Molina (L)SF3.09724

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +6
SD +6
123456789
largest lead: SF 1 · SD 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 54%, SF 46% · Updated Sep 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.5 – 4.0 SF
Expected total
8.5
PadresThe matchupGiants
−116Our fair odds+116
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.10Power rating−0.13
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.1Allowed / game4.7
7.8Hits / game8.4
1.10Home runs / game1.13
3.5Walks drawn / game2.8
78−68Season record62−85
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi62.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−11654%−16862.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11646%+13442.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySF wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more39%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 10 Kstarted
SFAnthony Molina SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·SF
Sep 9 vs WSH
last game
Sep 9 vs STL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 146+ games
SD·SF
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
78−68
season record
62−85
46−29
home record
36−36
32−39
away record
26−49
W4
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.4
1.10
home runs / game
1.13
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.42
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

SD · SF · 167 days
San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Aug 2at SDSD 5 − 4
Aug 1at SDSD 6 − 5
Jul 31at SDSD 7 − 0
Jul 30at SDSF 4 − 1
May 6at SFSD 5 − 1
May 5at SFSD 10 − 5
May 4at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 1at SDSD 7 − 1
Mar 31at SDSF 9 − 3
Mar 30at SDSF 3 − 2

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Sep 9vs WSH9 − 2W
Sep 8vs WSH5 − 4W
Sep 7vs WSH3 − 2W
Sep 6vs NYY4 − 3W
Sep 5vs NYY1 − 5L
Sep 4vs NYY3 − 2W
Sep 2at CIN3 − 7L
Sep 1at CIN3 − 4L
Aug 31at CIN5 − 0W
Aug 30at TB4 − 5L

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Sep 9vs STL7 − 6W
Sep 8vs STL2 − 1W
Sep 7vs STL5 − 4W
Sep 6at NYM2 − 4L
Sep 5at NYM9 − 5W
Sep 4at NYM6 − 10L
Sep 3at PIT2 − 5L
Sep 2at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 1at PIT12 − 13L
Aug 31at ATL7 − 3W