bayesRatings

Nationals at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 8 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final WSH 4 – SD 5
← MLB / Sep 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH010002010470
SD00000014560
Team box
WSH·SD
7
hits
6
2
home runs
0
1
walks
5
11
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD2-3202
Andres ChaparroWSH1-1111
Yohandy MoralesWSH1-4111
Luis CampusanoSD2-4001
Brady HouseWSH1-4002
Ty FranceSD2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Riley CornelioWSH3.00004
Erik Tolman (L)WSH1.03100
Casey MizeSD5.24317
David Morgan (W)SD0.10000
Adrian Morejon (S)SD1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 1 · WSH 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 43%, SD 57% · Updated Sep 8

Expected margin
SD by 0.5
Expected score
SD 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
Expected total
8.5
NationalsThe matchupPadres
+132Our fair odds−132
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.11Power rating+0.09
5.1Runs / game4.2
5.1Allowed / game4.1
8.5Hits / game7.8
1.34Home runs / game1.10
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
67−79Season record76−68
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · SD chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13243%+15938.6%———
SDSan Diego Padres−13257%−19165.6%———
SpreadSD by 0.5
WSHWashington Nationals+0.5our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.5 expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more39%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHRiley Cornelio RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
SDCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·SD
Sep 7 at SD
last game
Sep 7 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 144+ games
WSH·SD
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
5.1
runs / game
4.2
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.1
67−79
season record
76−68
33−40
home record
44−29
34−39
away record
32−39
L5
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
7.8
1.34
home runs / game
1.10
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.65
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

WSH · SD · 164 days
Washington NationalsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
Sep 7at SDSD 3 − 2
May 31at WSHWSH 4 − 2
May 30at WSHWSH 9 − 4
May 29at WSHSD 7 − 5
Jul 20, 2025at WSHSD 8 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at WSHSD 7 − 2
Jun 25, 2025at SDSD 1 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 23, 2025at SDWSH 10 − 6

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Sep 7at SD2 − 3L
Sep 6at LAD5 − 7L
Sep 5at LAD5 − 6L
Sep 4at LAD3 − 5L
Sep 2vs ATL0 − 9L
Sep 1vs ATL9 − 5W
Aug 31vs MIA6 − 3W
Aug 30vs MIA2 − 6L
Aug 29vs MIA5 − 4W
Aug 28vs MIA9 − 2W

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Sep 7vs WSH3 − 2W
Sep 6vs NYY4 − 3W
Sep 5vs NYY1 − 5L
Sep 4vs NYY3 − 2W
Sep 2at CIN3 − 7L
Sep 1at CIN3 − 4L
Aug 31at CIN5 − 0W
Aug 30at TB4 − 5L
Aug 29at TB6 − 7L
Aug 28at TB4 − 9L