bayesRatings

Marlins at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 16 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final MIA 4 – ARI 3
← MLB / Sep 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA0220000004100
ARI0100100103101
Team box
MIA·ARI
10
hits
10
1
home runs
3
4
walks
2
10
strikeouts
9
153
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gabriel MorenoARI3-4111
Jakob MarseeMIA2-3212
Heriberto HernandezMIA4-5001
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4111
Pavin SmithARI2-4111
Otto LopezMIA2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan GustoMIA4.18214
Cade Gibson (W)MIA1.21001
Sandy Alcantara (S)MIA1.00010
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI4.27329

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · MIA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 47%, ARI 53% · Updated Sep 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.5 MIA
Expected total
9.1
MarlinsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+115Our fair odds−115
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.02Power rating+0.04
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.2
1.03Home runs / game0.99
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
75−77Season record80−72
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ARI chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+11547%+11446.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11553%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 12%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ARI
Sep 15 at ARI
last game
Sep 15 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 152+ games
MIA·ARI
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
75−77
season record
80−72
45−33
home record
43−34
30−44
away record
37−38
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.2
1.03
home runs / game
0.99
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.62
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

MIA · ARI · 172 days
Miami MarlinsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 3−7
Sep 15at ARIMIA 4 − 2
Sep 14at ARIARI 8 − 7
Jun 11at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Jun 10at MIAMIA 8 − 0
Jun 9at MIAMIA 10 − 6
Jun 29, 2025at ARIMIA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at ARIMIA 8 − 7
Jun 27, 2025at ARIMIA 9 − 8
Apr 17, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 2

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 15at ARI4 − 2W
Sep 14at ARI7 − 8L
Sep 13vs LAD6 − 4W
Sep 12vs LAD4 − 3W
Sep 11vs LAD2 − 6L
Sep 9vs NYM14 − 15L
Sep 8vs NYM5 − 7L
Sep 7vs NYM4 − 9L
Sep 6vs CHC10 − 3W
Sep 5vs CHC5 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 15vs MIA2 − 4L
Sep 14vs MIA8 − 7W
Sep 13vs TEX6 − 7L
Sep 12vs TEX2 − 6L
Sep 11vs TEX9 − 1W
Sep 9at KC2 − 5L
Sep 8at KC5 − 3W
Sep 7at KC5 − 4W
Sep 6at HOU3 − 2W
Sep 5at HOU4 − 3W