bayesRatings

Marlins at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final MIA 4 – ARI 2
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
MIA00010000003451
ARI10000000001291
Team box
MIA·ARI
5
hits
9
1
home runs
1
3
walks
5
11
strikeouts
14
201
pitches thrown
167
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4111
Esteury RuizMIA1-3003
Griffin ConineMIA1-2111
Ketel MarteARI2-6001
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3000
Jesus SanchezARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Janson JunkMIA3.05114
Josh Ekness (W)MIA2.01012
Michael SorokaARI5.02116
Taylor Clarke (L)ARI1.01221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
MIA +3
1234567891011
largest lead: ARI 1 · MIA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 46%, ARI 54% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.7 – 4.4 MIA
Expected total
9.1
MarlinsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+117Our fair odds−117
4.4Expected runs4.7
−0.02Power rating+0.05
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.2
1.03Home runs / game0.99
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
74−77Season record80−71
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ARI chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+11746%+13442.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11754%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.3our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 12%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more29%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 6 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ARI
Sep 14 at ARI
last game
Sep 14 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 151+ games
MIA·ARI
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
74−77
season record
80−71
45−33
home record
43−33
29−44
away record
37−38
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.2
1.03
home runs / game
0.99
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.62
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

MIA · ARI · 171 days
Miami MarlinsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 4−6
Sep 14at ARIARI 8 − 7
Jun 11at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Jun 10at MIAMIA 8 − 0
Jun 9at MIAMIA 10 − 6
Jun 29, 2025at ARIMIA 6 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at ARIMIA 8 − 7
Jun 27, 2025at ARIMIA 9 − 8
Apr 17, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 4
Apr 16, 2025at MIAARI 6 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at MIAARI 10 − 4

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 14at ARI7 − 8L
Sep 13vs LAD6 − 4W
Sep 12vs LAD4 − 3W
Sep 11vs LAD2 − 6L
Sep 9vs NYM14 − 15L
Sep 8vs NYM5 − 7L
Sep 7vs NYM4 − 9L
Sep 6vs CHC10 − 3W
Sep 5vs CHC5 − 6L
Sep 4vs CHC1 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 14vs MIA8 − 7W
Sep 13vs TEX6 − 7L
Sep 12vs TEX2 − 6L
Sep 11vs TEX9 − 1W
Sep 9at KC2 − 5L
Sep 8at KC5 − 3W
Sep 7at KC5 − 4W
Sep 6at HOU3 − 2W
Sep 5at HOU4 − 3W
Sep 4at HOU1 − 3L