bayesRatings

Padres at Rockies

MLB · Thursday, Sep 17 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SD 9 – COL 2
← MLB / Sep 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0700200009150
COL100001000291
Team box
SD·COL
15
hits
9
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
9
138
pitches thrown
186
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Xander BogaertsSD3-5112
Dustin HarrisSD3-5103
Ty FranceSD3-4100
Samad TaylorSD2-4201
Jackson MerrillSD1-4102
Mickey MoniakCOL2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael King (W)SD6.07226
Tanner Gordon (L)COL3.010723

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +8
SD +8
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · SD 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 63%, COL 37% · Updated Sep 17

Expected margin
SD by 1.7
Expected score
SD 6.4 – 4.7 COL
Expected total
11.1
PadresThe matchupRockies
−174Our fair odds+174
6.4Expected runs4.7
+0.11Power rating−0.52
4.3Runs / game4.7
4.2Allowed / game5.8
8.0Hits / game8.6
1.12Home runs / game1.11
3.4Walks drawn / game3.2
83−69Season record56−96
9−1Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · COL chance
Our model fair63.5%36.5%
Kalshi66.6%36.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−17463%−19966.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+17437%+17336.6%———
SpreadSD by 1.7
SDSan Diego Padres−1.7our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 1.7 expected
San Diego Padres by 18 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 17 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 16 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 15 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCOL wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more50%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 13 Kstarted
COLTanner Gordon SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·COL
Sep 16 at COL
last game
Sep 16 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 152+ games
SD·COL
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.52
4.3
runs / game
4.7
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.8
83−69
season record
56−96
46−29
home record
31−43
37−40
away record
25−53
W1
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
1−9
8.0
hits / game
8.6
1.12
home runs / game
1.11
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.41
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

SD · COL · 173 days
San Diego PadresColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Sep 16at COLSD 9 − 3
Sep 15at COLCOL 9 − 3
Sep 14at COLSD 8 − 7
Jul 29at SDSD 3 − 1
Jul 28at SDSD 8 − 7
Apr 23at COLSD 10 − 8
Apr 22at COLCOL 8 − 3
Apr 21at COLSD 1 − 0
Apr 12at SDSD 7 − 2
Apr 11at SDSD 9 − 5

SD · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Sep 16at COL9 − 3W
Sep 15at COL3 − 9L
Sep 14at COL8 − 7W
Sep 13at SF6 − 4W
Sep 12at SF7 − 6W
Sep 11at SF7 − 5W
Sep 9vs WSH9 − 2W
Sep 8vs WSH5 − 4W
Sep 7vs WSH3 − 2W
Sep 6vs NYY4 − 3W

COL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Sep 16vs SD3 − 9L
Sep 15vs SD9 − 3W
Sep 14vs SD7 − 8L
Sep 13at DET1 − 8L
Sep 12at DET7 − 11L
Sep 11at DET2 − 6L
Sep 10at NYY3 − 10L
Sep 9at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 8at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 6vs STL8 − 10L